Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech — Toronto Round of 64
USA3
Pegula J.
Jessica Pegula faces Magdalena Frech in the Toronto round of 64 on hard. Jessica Pegula holds the paper edge — ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 4–0, a roughly 360-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Pegula J. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Jessica Pegula has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 93 vs Magdalena Frech's 23).
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Jessica Pegula 93 games in 14 days, Magdalena Frech 64.
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula leads the head-to-head 4–0, 2–0 on hard. Last met at Washington 2026.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
4–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Washington | R16 | hard | Jessica Pegula | 3-6 6-3 6-0 |
| 2025-04-14 | Stuttgart | R16 | clay | Jessica Pegula | 6-1 6-1 |
| 2023-04-24 | Madrid | R64 | clay | Jessica Pegula | 7-6 6-3 |
| 2021-09-27 | Chicago 2 | R64 | hard | Jessica Pegula | 6-3 6-0 |