Jessica Pegula vs Ekaterina AlexandrovaWuhan Round of 16

Wuhan · WTA · Round of 16
#4WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 6 October 2025
hard
#19WTA
1844ELO
1800Hard ELO
$761kYTD
$10MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWLL
Pegula J.
7-5 3-6 6-3
Alexandrova E.
Pegula J.
7362
Alexandrova E.
5631

Jessica Pegula defeated Ekaterina Alexandrova 7-5 3-6 6-3 in the Wuhan round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #4, defending last year's round of 16. Jessica Pegula narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Key context

  • Match story: Jessica Pegula closed it out in three sets, 7–5 3–6 6–3.

Head to head

23
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-14StuttgartQFclayEkaterina Alexandrova6-0 6-4
2025-03-31CharlestonSFclayJessica Pegula6-2 2-6 7-5
2025-02-09DohaQFhardEkaterina Alexandrova4-6 6-1 6-1
2024-03-18MiamiQFhardEkaterina Alexandrova3-6 6-4 6-4
2021-05-10RomeR16clayJessica Pegula6-2 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Alexandrova E.

Alexandrova E.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Pegula J.Alexandrova E.
68
Serve
52
73
Return
42

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
46%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Even
60%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.2
4.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.2
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (96 vs 85). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
96
65
Break points saved·Even
96
94
Break points won·Even
99
98
Deciding sets·Dominant
100
61
Tiebreaks·Dominant
96
29

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.2+258 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.8Hard Elo 1800
8.0Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
2.0Overall Elo 1844
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.8
Surface form
6.2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3.8
Minutes 14d
9.2
0.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
72
88

Pegula J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Alexandrova E.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
33°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw