Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jessica PegulaDoha Quarter-final

Doha · WTA · Quarter-final
#19WTA
1844ELO
1800Hard ELO
$761kYTD
$10MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 9 February 2025
hard
#4WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
Alexandrova E.
4-6 6-1 6-1
Pegula J.
Alexandrova E.
4662
Pegula J.
6111

Ekaterina Alexandrova defeated Jessica Pegula 4-6 6-1 6-1 in the Doha quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 3–2, but Ekaterina Alexandrova had arrived on a 4-match winning run. Ekaterina Alexandrova narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Key context

Head to head

23
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-06WuhanR16hardJessica Pegula7-5 3-6 6-3
2025-04-14StuttgartQFclayEkaterina Alexandrova6-0 6-4
2025-03-31CharlestonSFclayJessica Pegula6-2 2-6 7-5
2024-03-18MiamiQFhardEkaterina Alexandrova3-6 6-4 6-4
2021-05-10RomeR16clayJessica Pegula6-2 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Alexandrova E.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Pegula J.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Alexandrova E.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alexandrova E.Pegula J.
52
Serve
68
42
Return
73

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
50%
Service points won·Even
60%
62%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Even
58%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.7
3.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.1
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (85 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
65
96
Break points saved·Even
94
96
Break points won·Even
98
99
Deciding sets·Dominant
61
100
Tiebreaks·Dominant
29
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 27 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
1.8Hard Elo 1800
Surface ELO
8.2+258 Hard Elo edge
2.0Overall Elo 1844
ELO gap
8.0Overall Elo 2097
10.0
H2H
0.0
6.8
Surface form
6.2
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0
Minutes 14d
4.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
90
76

Alexandrova E.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Pegula J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
21°CPartly cloudy
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 34%

Draw