Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider — Washington Semi-final

Washington · WTA · Semi-final
Jessica Pegula
USA1
Jessica Pegula
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$5.7MYTD
$28MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM · 2nd on
Diana Shnaider
RUS4
Diana Shnaider
#14WTA
1891ELO
1833Hard ELO
$2.5MYTD
$6.7MCAREER
22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWW
Pegula J.
7-5 6-4
Shnaider D.
Pegula J.
762
Shnaider D.
540

Jessica Pegula advanced to the final of the Washington tournament, defeating Diana Shnaider in the semifinals with a 7-5, 6-4 victory on hard courts. Pegula hit 3 aces and 2 double faults, winning 66% of her first serves and converting 62% of break points. She won 5 service breaks to Shnaider's 3.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • “I remember in Miami. This was, like, before people knew her as much. I'm assuming tomorrow it's probably going to be worse. I don't know if there's more Filipino here compared to Miami, but Miami I was just, like, 'who are these people?'”

    Pegula J.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “To be back, I know now probably a tougher tournament now than it was back then, but just to be able to come back from 2019... it's pretty cool I think when I can look at it from that perspective.”

    Pegula J.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

3–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-08TorontoR16hardDiana Shnaider3-6 3-6
2026-03-30CharlestonQFclayJessica Pegula3-6 6-3 6-2
2024-08-26US OpenR16hardJessica Pegula6-4 6-2
2024-08-05TorontoSFhardJessica Pegula6-4 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Pegula J.Shnaider D.
1st serve in·Even
63%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
58%
Return points won·Even
46%
44%
Break points saved·Even
58%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.1
1.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Pegula J.Shnaider D.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
94
82
Break points saved·Clear edge
86
63
Break points won·Even
99
98
Deciding sets·Clear edge
99
87
Tiebreaks·Even
91
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Pegula J.73%
Shnaider D.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Shnaider D.
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.8+225 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Hard Elo 1833
7.6Overall Elo 2096
ELO gap
2.4Overall Elo 1891
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
8.08 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.75 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Pegula J.Shnaider D.
Freshness·Slight edge
93
100

Pegula J.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Shnaider D.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
32°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 39%

Draw