Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider — Washington Semi-final
USA1
RUS4
Pegula J.
Jessica Pegula faces Diana Shnaider in the Washington semi-final on hard. Jessica Pegula holds the paper edge — ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 3–0, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula leads the head-to-head 3–0, 2–0 on hard. Last met at Charleston 2026.
- Fatigue load: Jessica Pegula carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadPegula J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d) · Shnaider D.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
3–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Charleston | QF | clay | Jessica Pegula | 3-6 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024-08-26 | US Open | R16 | hard | Jessica Pegula | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2024-08-05 | Toronto | SF | hard | Jessica Pegula | 6-4 6-3 |