Jessica Pegula vs Iva Jovic — Wimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 16
Jessica Pegula
USA
Jessica Pegula
#4WTA
2097ELO
1903Grass ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWLLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
grass
Iva Jovic
USA
Iva Jovic
#16WTA
1906ELO
1798Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$2.4MCAREER
18 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWLWW
Pegula J.
vs
Jovic I.

Jessica Pegula faces Iva Jovic in the Wimbledon round of 16 on grass. Jessica Pegula holds the paper edge — ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 128. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
Pegula J.74%
Jovic I.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Jovic I.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.3+106 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Grass Elo 1798
7.2Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1906
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.18 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.5Won 59% in GBR (22)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Pegula J.Cooling
Jovic I.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

24 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
Pegula J.Jovic I.
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Even
62%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.8
2.3
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Jovic I.

Jovic I.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Pegula J.Jovic I.
Clutch Rating·Even
96
93
Break points saved·Even
96
95
Break points won·Even
99
98
Deciding sets·Slight edge
100
92
Tiebreaks·
96
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Pegula J.Jovic I.
Freshness·Slight edge
75
85

Pegula J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Jovic I.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 52%

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-30CharlestonSFclayJessica Pegula6-4 5-7 6-3
2026-02-15DubaiR16hardJessica Pegula6-4 6-2
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.[13]
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.[29]
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.[26]
1-64-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.[9]
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.[25]
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.[2]
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.
Ostapenko J.
6-4 4-1
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.
1-63-6
Muchova K.
Sawangkaew M.
6-2 3-5
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
3-6 2-5
Pegula J.[4]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-16-3
Alexandrova E.
Jovic I.
3-66-34-6
Bencic B.
Kalinskaya A.
6-44-67-66
Liu C.
Gauff C.
3-6 3-3
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
Navarro E.[23]
Kostyuk M.[12]
Paolini J.[13]
Sakkari M.
Eala A.[29]
Swiatek I.[3]
Anisimova A.[6]
Keys M.[26]
Cirstea S.[17]
Noskova L.[9]
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.[21]
Mertens E.[25]
Rybakina E.[2]
—
Osaka N.
—
Pegula J.
Jovic I.
Bencic B.
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