Jessica Pegula vs Dayana YastremskaBrisbane Round of 16

Brisbane · WTA · Round of 16
#4WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#67WTA
1792ELO
1733Hard ELO
$505kYTD
$6.5MCAREER
26 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWW
Pegula J.
5-7 6-2 6-3
Yastremska D.
Pegula J.
5662
Yastremska D.
7231

Jessica Pegula defeated Dayana Yastremska 5-7 6-2 6-3 in the Brisbane round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #4. Jessica Pegula claimed a first win over Dayana Yastremska in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-04-15BJK Cup QLS R1: USA vs UKRRRhardDayana Yastremska6-3 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Yastremska D.

Yastremska D.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Pegula J.Yastremska D.
68
Serve
11
73
Return
25

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
56%
Return points won·Even
43%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
52%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.8
2.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.7
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
96
77
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
89
Break points won·Slight edge
99
92
Deciding sets·Dominant
100
63
Tiebreaks·Even
96
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
3.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 76 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
9.1+325 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.9Hard Elo 1733
9.0Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
1.0Overall Elo 1792
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.6
Surface form
3.5
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.3
Country comfort
5.6
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
72
90

Pegula J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Yastremska D.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw