Jessica Pegula vs Coco Gauff — Wimbledon Quarter-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Quarter-final
Jessica Pegula
USA
Jessica Pegula
#4WTA
2097ELO
1903Grass ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWWLL
—
Sets
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 ·
grass
Coco Gauff
USA
Coco Gauff
#7WTA
2071ELO
1823Grass ELO
$2.9MYTD
$33MCAREER
22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLWWLW
Pegula J.
vs
Gauff C.

Jessica Pegula faces Coco Gauff in the Wimbledon quarter-final on grass. Jessica Pegula holds the paper edge — ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 5–3, defending last year's round of 128. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Pegula J.70%
Gauff C.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Gauff C.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+81 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Grass Elo 1823
5.2Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 2071
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
8.38 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.76 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
5.7Won 61% in GBR (23)
Country comfort
6.2Won 70% in GBR (27)
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Pegula J.Cooling
Gauff C.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

24 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
Pegula J.Gauff C.
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
67%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
51%
38%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.8
3.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
7.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Gauff C.

Gauff C.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Pegula J.Gauff C.
Clutch Rating·Even
96
99
Break points saved·Even
96
96
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Even
100
100
Tiebreaks·Even
96
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Pegula J.Gauff C.
Freshness·Clear edge
77
65

Pegula J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d) · Gauff C.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 50%

Head to head

5–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardJessica Pegula6-3 6-7(4) 6-2
2025-10-06WuhanFhardCoco Gauff6-4 7-5
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardCoco Gauff6-3 6-2
2024-06-17BerlinSFgrassJessica Pegula7-5 7-6(2)
2023-10-30Cancun FinalsSFhardJessica Pegula6-2 6-1
2023-08-07MontrealQFhardJessica Pegula6-2 5-7 7-5
2023-06-26EastbourneQFgrassCoco Gauff6-3 6-3
2022-02-14DubaiR32hardJessica Pegula6-4 6-4
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.[13]
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.[29]
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.[26]
1-64-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.[9]
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.[25]
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.[2]
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Ostapenko J.
6-46-4
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.[14]
1-63-6
Muchova K.[10]
Sawangkaew M.
6-27-61
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
3-65-7
Pegula J.[4]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-16-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Jovic I.[16]
3-66-34-6
Bencic B.[11]
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-44-67-66
Liu C.
Gauff C.[7]
3-67-652-6
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
3-62-6
Navarro E.[23]
Kostyuk M.[12]
2-66-41-6
Paolini J.[13]
Sakkari M.
6-16-2
Eala A.[29]
Swiatek I.[3]
7-696-2
Anisimova A.[6]
Keys M.[26]
6-32-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Noskova L.[9]
6-23-66-79
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.[21]
6-46-734-6
Mertens E.[25]
Rybakina E.[2]
7-646-1
Sabalenka A.
Osaka N.
2-66-72
Muchova K.
Krejcikova B.
7-55-76-3
Pegula J.[4]
Jovic I.[16]
4-66-36-1
Bencic B.
Gauff C.
6-43-64-6
Krueger A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
Paolini J.
Eala A.
Keys M.
Noskova L.
Bouzkova M.
Mertens E.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Pegula J.
Gauff C.
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