Diana Shnaider vs Liudmila SamsonovaWimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 64
#14WTA
1891ELO
1698Grass ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.3MCAREER
22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 2 July 2026 ·
grass
Court 12 · 1st on
#43WTA
1775ELO
1699Grass ELO
$722kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Shnaider D.
4-6 6-4 2-6
Samsonova L.
Shnaider D.
4621
Samsonova L.
6462

Liudmila Samsonova defeated Diana Shnaider in the Round of 64 at Wimbledon, advancing with a 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 victory. Samsonova hit 4 aces to Shnaider's 1 and converted 71% of her break points, compared to Shnaider's 33%. Samsonova won 80% of her first-serve points and secured 5 service breaks to Shnaider's 3.

Key context

Head to head

30
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-31WashingtonQFhardDiana Shnaider6-3 6-4
2024-08-05TorontoQFhardDiana Shnaider4-6 6-1 6-4
2024-05-06RomeR64clayDiana Shnaider6-1 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
47%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.3
3.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.5
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
82
54
Break points saved·Slight edge
63
73
Break points won·Slight edge
98
92
Deciding sets·Dominant
89
37
Tiebreaks·Dominant
88
35

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Shnaider D.74%
Samsonova L.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Shnaider D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.4+34 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Grass Elo 1693
6.8Overall Elo 1910
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1764
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
4.65 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
7.0Reached the quarters here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
76
65

Shnaider D.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Samsonova L.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 62 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw