Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina — Bad Homburg Round of 16
Samsonova L.
Liudmila Samsonova faces Elina Svitolina in the Bad Homburg round of 16 on grass. Elina Svitolina holds the paper edge — ranked #8, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Svitolina E. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Liudmila Samsonova comes in with 6 days of rest and 53 games in 14d, vs Elina Svitolina's 2 and 48.
- Stage: Elina Svitolina defends last year's round of 16.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSamsonova L.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Svitolina E.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.