Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina SvitolinaBad Homburg Round of 16

Bad Homburg · WTA · Round of 16
#70WTA
1775ELO
1699Grass ELO
$722kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWWWLL
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 23 June 2026 ·
grass
#10WTA
2070ELO
1859Grass ELO
$3.5MYTD
$30MCAREER
31 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLLWWLW
Samsonova L.
6-3 3-6 2-6
Svitolina E.
Samsonova L.
6321
Svitolina E.
3662

Elina Svitolina defeated Liudmila Samsonova in the Round of 16 at the Bad Homburg grass tournament. The match ended with a score of 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in favor of Svitolina. Both players hit one ace and committed two and one double faults respectively; Svitolina won 75% of her first serves, Samsonova 67%; neither player converted a break point or lost a service game.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
49%
Service points won·Even
58%
60%
Return points won·Even
43%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
63%
Aces / match·Even
2.9
3.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.7
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
60
91
Break points saved·Slight edge
71
81
Break points won·Slight edge
91
99
Deciding sets·Dominant
54
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
36
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Samsonova L.22%
Svitolina E.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Svitolina E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Grass Elo 1608
Surface ELO
5.6+50 Grass Elo edge
1.2Overall Elo 1678
ELO gap
8.8Overall Elo 1984
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.86 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.77 of last 10 on grass
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
5.7Won 62% in Germany (21)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
69
84

Samsonova L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d) · Svitolina E.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 42 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
31°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw