Liudmila Samsonova vs Marie Bouzkova — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 32
Liudmila Samsonova
RUS
Liudmila Samsonova
#41WTA
1764ELO
1693Grass ELO
$722kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLLLLLW
—
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
grass
Marie Bouzkova
CZE
Marie Bouzkova
#23WTA
1871ELO
1751Grass ELO
$844kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWWLWL
Samsonova L.
vs
Bouzkova M.

Liudmila Samsonova faces Marie Bouzkova in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Marie Bouzkova is the paper favourite — ranked #23, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 60-point grass Elo advantage — but Liudmila Samsonova has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings, though none on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC
Samsonova L.36%
Bouzkova M.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Bouzkova M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Samsonova L.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Bouzkova M.
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Grass Elo 1693
Surface ELO
5.7+58 Grass Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1764
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1871
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.06 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.39 of last 10 on grass
Win streak
9.07-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
5.2Won 54% in GBR (24)
Context
7.0Reached the quarters here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Samsonova L.Stable
Bouzkova M.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

15 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Samsonova L.Bouzkova M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
44%
Service points won·Even
57%
56%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
53%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.3
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Samsonova L.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Bouzkova M.

Bouzkova M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Samsonova L.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Samsonova L.Bouzkova M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
70
76
Break points saved·Even
93
90
Break points won·Even
94
98
Deciding sets·Clear edge
58
72
Tiebreaks·Even
63
64

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Samsonova L.Bouzkova M.
Freshness·Slight edge
83
76

Samsonova L.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Bouzkova M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

2–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-06AdelaideR32hardLiudmila Samsonova1-6 6-4 6-1
2024-08-26US OpenR64hardLiudmila Samsonova3-6 7-6(1) 6-3
2022-10-17Guadalajara 2R16hardMarie Bouzkova0-6 7-5 6-3
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.
1-64-6
Cirstea S.
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.
Ostapenko J.
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Sawangkaew M.
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
Pegula J.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Alexandrova E.
Jovic I.
Bencic B.[11]
Kalinskaya A.[19]
Liu C.
Gauff C.
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
Navarro E.
Kostyuk M.
Paolini J.
Sakkari M.
Eala A.
Swiatek I.
Anisimova A.
Keys M.
Cirstea S.
Noskova L.
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.
Mertens E.
Rybakina E.
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