Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova

Berlin · WTA · Round of 32

BEL

Elise Mertens

#22WTA

1917ELO

1767Grass ELO

$1.4MYTD

$19MCAREER

30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLWLWLWLW

—

Sets

Monday, 15 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

RUS

Liudmila Samsonova

#35WTA

1805ELO

1747Grass ELO

$549kYTD

$8.5MCAREER

27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLLLWLWLWL

Elise Mertens faces Liudmila Samsonova in the Berlin round of 32 on grass. They have met 2 times, Liudmila Samsonova leading 2–0, though this is their first meeting on grass.

Key context

Head-to-head: Liudmila Samsonova leads the head-to-head 2–0, but this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Toronto 2024.
Stage: Liudmila Samsonova defends last year's semi-final.
Fatigue load: Liudmila Samsonova carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC

Mertens E.66%

Samsonova L.34%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mertens E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Mertens E.

6.7

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Samsonova L.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

5.2+20 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.8Grass Elo 1747

6.5Overall Elo 1917

ELO gap

3.5Overall Elo 1805

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

6.67 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

6.57 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 4

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Country comfort

5.4Won 57% in DEU (28)

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

8.5Reached the semis here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

1.15

SlowFast

Weather forecast

15°COvercast

Wind 19 km/hHumidity 71%

Head to head

0–2

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2024-08-05	Toronto	R16	hard	Liudmila Samsonova	6-2 6-4
2022-08-01	Washington	R32	hard	Liudmila Samsonova	7-6(4) 6-4

View full head-to-head →

Statistics

Recent form

Mertens E.Samsonova L.

59%1st serve in+4%55%

69%1st serve points won+3%66%

49%2nd serve points won+2%47%

61%Service points won+3%58%

45%Return points won+2%43%

56%Break points saved+2%54%

4.5Aces / match+1.23.3

3.8Double faults / match+0.54.3

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova — Berlin Round of 32