Marie Bouzkova vs Elise Mertens — Wimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 16
Marie Bouzkova
CZE21
Marie Bouzkova
#21WTA
1871ELO
1751Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$7.6MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
grass
No.2 Court · 2nd on
Elise Mertens
BEL25
Elise Mertens
#24WTA
1894ELO
1750Grass ELO
$2.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWLW
Bouzkova M.
4-6 4-6
Mertens E.
Bouzkova M.
440
Mertens E.
662

Elise Mertens defeated Marie Bouzkova in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon, advancing with a 6-4, 6-4 victory on the grass courts. Mertens hit 2 aces and 4 double faults, winning 67% of her first serves and converting 62% of break points. She secured 5 service breaks to Bouzkova's 3, ultimately claiming the win.

Around the match

  • “I've been to the 4th round for like four times already and I never played a quarterfinal. So I was like, I have to be over 30 years old to play a quarterfinal here.”

    Mertens E.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “I was thinking maybe this is my chance. Who knows, my last chance. Maybe not, maybe yes. But, yeah, I'm over 30 now. To eventually get it done, play a quarterfinals, is something amazing.”

    Mertens E.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Elise Mertens edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

2–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-15DubaiR64hardElise Mertens6-2 6-2
2023-08-14CincinnatiR32hardMarie Bouzkova6-2 4-6 6-1
2015-09-14Monterrey $25KQFhardMarie Bouzkova6-1 6-0
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Bouzkova M.Mertens E.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
61%
Return points won·Even
45%
47%
Break points saved·Even
55%
52%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.6
4.0
Double faults / match·Even
3.8
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Bouzkova M.Mertens E.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
31
42
Break points saved·Slight edge
21
26
Break points won·Even
92
93
Deciding sets·Slight edge
29
39
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
18
41

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Bouzkova M.38%
Mertens E.62%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mertens E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bouzkova M.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Mertens E.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.0+3 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.0Grass Elo 1748
4.7Overall Elo 1871
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1891
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
9.39 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.66 of last 10 on grass
10.08-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.7Won 62% in United Kingdom (29)
Country comfort
5.6Won 61% in United Kingdom (38)
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Bouzkova M.Mertens E.
Freshness·Clear edge
76
100

Bouzkova M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Mertens E.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
31°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 24%

Draw