Aryna Sabalenka vs Mccartney Kessler — Wimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 64
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
1987Grass ELO
$4.6MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWWWWL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 ·
grass
Mccartney Kessler
USA
Mccartney Kessler
#57WTA
1784ELO
1664Grass ELO
$545kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLLLWLW
Sabalenka A.
vs
Kessler M.

Aryna Sabalenka faces Mccartney Kessler in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Aryna Sabalenka holds the paper edge — ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's semi-final. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:22 UTC
Sabalenka A.93%
Kessler M.7%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Kessler M.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.0+323 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.0Grass Elo 1664
9.5Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.5Overall Elo 1784
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
7.88 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
6.5Won 74% in GBR (35)
Country comfort
Context
8.5Reached the semis here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sabalenka A.Sliding
Kessler M.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

21 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Kessler M.
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
74%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
44%
Break points saved·Clear edge
69%
55%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.2
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Kessler M.

Kessler M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Kessler M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
98
86
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
91
Break points won·Slight edge
100
95
Deciding sets·Even
97
94
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
67

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on grass

Sabalenka A.Kessler M.
100
Serve
—
57
Return
—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Kessler M.
Freshness·Slight edge
87
82

Sabalenka A.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Kessler M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-05Indian WellsR64hardAryna Sabalenka7-6(4) 6-3
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
S. Williams
Joint M.
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
Begu I.
Swan K.
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
Boulter K.
Grant T.
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
Sabalenka A.
Kessler M.
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Zhang S.
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
Siniakova K.
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Alexandrova E.
Tararudee L.
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
Sierra S.
Gauff C.
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