Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton StearnsMadrid Round of 64

Madrid · WTA · Round of 64
#1WTA
2220ELO
2103Clay ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 21 April 2026
clay
#63WTA
1804ELO
1756Clay ELO
$476kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLL
Sabalenka A.
7-5 6-3
Stearns P.
Sabalenka A.
762
Stearns P.
530

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Peyton Stearns 7-5 6-3 in the Madrid round of 64 on clay. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending the title. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-22MadridR16clayAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-4
2024-03-06Indian WellsR64hardAryna Sabalenka6-7(2) 6-2 7-6(6)

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving87% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Stearns P.

Stearns P.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
43%
Break points saved·Clear edge
69%
52%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.4
4.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
98
73
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
90
Break points won·Even
100
98
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
51
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
90

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 35 days (−0.7)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 22 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
9.8+347 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.2Clay Elo 1756
10.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1804
10.0
H2H
0.0
8.9
Surface form
6.5
10.015-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Prev. match
7.0
7.1
Country comfort
6.0
Surface transition
Context
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
86
96

Sabalenka A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Stearns P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 34%

Draw