Aryna Sabalenka vs Caty Mcnally — Miami Round of 32

Miami · WTA · Round of 32
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 17 March 2026
hard
Caty Mcnally
USA
Caty Mcnally
#50WTA
1817ELO
1731Hard ELO
$711kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLWW
Sabalenka A.
6-4 6-2
Mcnally C.
Sabalenka A.
662
Mcnally C.
420

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Caty Mcnally 6-4 6-2 in the Miami round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, defending the title.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving87% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Mcnally C.

Mcnally C.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Mcnally C.
96
Serve
26
39
Return
45

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Mcnally C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
72%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
74%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
45%
Service points won·Clear edge
68%
56%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
71%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.3
0.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Mcnally C.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
98
73
Break points saved·Dominant
98
73
Break points won·Even
100
99
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
74
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
100
78

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
9.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Mcnally C.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+470 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1731
10.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1817
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
9.2
Surface form
3.9
9.07-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.3
Minutes 14d
8.3
7.0
3-set count
0.0
8.0
Prev. match
6.4
Country comfort
6.0
Context
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Mcnally C.
Freshness·Slight edge
88
96

Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Mcnally C.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
19°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 79%

Draw

Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Gauff C.[4]
6-24-66-3
Semi-finals
Gauff C.[4]
Muchova K.[13]
6-16-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Rybakina E.[3]
6-46-3
Quarter-finals
Muchova K.[13]
Mboko V.[10]
7-57-65
Sabalenka A.[1]
Baptiste H.
6-46-4
Rybakina E.[3]
Pegula J.[5]
2-66-36-4
Gauff C.[4]
Bencic B.[12]
6-31-66-3
R16
Muchova K.[13]
Eala A.[31]
6-06-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Zheng Q.[23]
6-36-4
Pegula J.[5]
Cristian J.[34]
6-46-1
Mboko V.[10]
Andreeva M.[8]
7-644-66-0
Baptiste H.
Ostapenko J.[25]
6-36-4
Gauff C.[4]
Cirstea S.
6-43-66-2
Bencic B.[12]
Anisimova A.[6]
6-26-2
Rybakina E.[3]
Gibson T.
6-26-2
R32
Ostapenko J.[25]
Paolini J.[7]
5-76-27-5
Gauff C.[4]
Parks A.
3-66-06-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Mcnally C.
6-46-2
Eala A.[31]
Linette M.
6-37-62
Cirstea S.
Mertens E.[21]
6-36-2
Cristian J.[34]
Alexandrova E.[11]
6-34-67-65
Andreeva M.[8]
Bouzkova M.[32]
7-646-2
Anisimova A.[6]
Starodubtseva Y.
6-46-2
Zheng Q.[23]
Keys M.[15]
4-66-26-4
Mboko V.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-17-5
Gibson T.
Jovic I.[18]
6-26-2
Muchova K.[13]
Boulter K.
6-37-5
Bencic B.[12]
Shnaider D.[20]
6-36-3
Rybakina E.[3]
Kostyuk M.[27]
6-36-4
Baptiste H.
Svitolina E.[9]
6-37-5
Pegula J.[5]
Fernandez L.[26]
6-26-2
R64
Shnaider D.[20]
Valentova T.
7-677-63
Pegula J.[5]
Jones F.
6-13-0
Boulter K.
Tauson C.[17]
6-746-41-0
Starodubtseva Y.
Bucsa C.[30]
6-23-2
Bouzkova M.[32]
Jacquemot E.
6-26-2
Linette M.
Swiatek I.[2]
1-67-56-3
Zheng Q.[23]
Stephens S.
6-36-2
Muchova K.[13]
Osorio C.
4-66-27-5
Kostyuk M.[27]
Rakhimova K.
6-26-4
Paolini J.[7]
Townsend T.
6-31-66-2
Cirstea S.
Noskova L.[14]
6-23-66-4
Parks A.
Sakkari M.[33]
6-36-3
Mcnally C.
Wang X.[29]
6-41-66-0
Anisimova A.[6]
Tomljanovic A.
6-15-76-4
Ostapenko J.[25]
Yastremska D.
6-46-4
Alexandrova E.[11]
Tagger L.
6-36-3
Gibson T.
Osaka N.[16]
7-56-4
Sabalenka A.[1]
Li A.
7-656-4
Eala A.[31]
Siegemund L.
6-766-36-3
Cristian J.[34]
Stearns P.
6-47-5
Svitolina E.[9]
Jones E.
6-26-4
Fernandez L.[26]
Selekhmeteva O.
7-613-66-1
Mertens E.[21]
Kalieva E.
6-26-0
Keys M.[15]
Ruse E.
6-06-3
Rybakina E.[3]
Putintseva Y.
6-36-3
Zakharova A.
Kalinskaya A.[22]
3-66-17-5
Mboko V.[10]
Blinkova A.
6-26-0
Baptiste H.
Samsonova L.[19]
6-37-5
Andreeva M.[8]
Kessler M.
6-16-736-1
Bencic B.[12]
Sonmez Z.
6-36-2
Gauff C.[4]
Cocciaretto E.
3-66-46-3
Jovic I.[18]
Badosa P.
6-26-1
R128
Tomljanovic A.
Waltert S.
6-36-4
Siegemund L.
Marcinko P.
6-46-4
Putintseva Y.
Tjen J.
3-66-36-4
Gibson T.
Bejlek S.
6-16-0
Mcnally C.
Masarova R.
6-27-5
Cocciaretto E.
Semenistaja D.
6-46-1
Tagger L.
Seidel E.
6-786-47-5
Jones E.
Fruhvirtova L.
3-67-637-64
Cirstea S.
Zhang S.
6-36-4
Jones F.
Williams V.
7-57-5
Sonmez Z.
Haddad Maia B.
6-36-2
Stearns P.
Golubic V.
7-666-4
Li A.
Birrell K.
6-22-66-3
Townsend T.
Sun L.
7-656-3
Starodubtseva Y.
Lys E.
6-16-4
Jacquemot E.
Vidmanova D.
6-757-57-5
Linette M.
Gracheva V.
2-66-26-0
Badosa P.
Sasnovich A.
7-56-3
Kalieva E.
Galfi D.
6-36-757-65
Boulter K.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
7-696-4
Baptiste H.
Maria T.
7-56-2
Kessler M.
Frech M.
2-66-46-2
Yastremska D.
Krueger A.
2-66-47-5
Blinkova A.
Kenin S.
3-66-16-3
Selekhmeteva O.
Arango E.
6-34-66-3
Ruse E.
Ruzic A.
7-57-63
Rakhimova K.
Sierra S.
6-16-3
Parks A.
Kraus S.
7-57-64
Valentova T.
Volynets K.
6-26-4
Zakharova A.
Bondar A.
5-76-36-1
Osorio C.
Siniakova K.
6-16-4
Stephens S.
Brady J.
6-46-2