Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iva Jovic — Wimbledon Round of 32
Alexandrova E.
Ekaterina Alexandrova faces Iva Jovic in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Iva Jovic is the paper favourite — ranked #16, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 70-point grass Elo advantage — but Ekaterina Alexandrova has won their only previous meeting, though none on grass.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 22:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Jovic I. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Ekaterina Alexandrova 100 games in 14 days, Iva Jovic 19.
- Serve & return: Ekaterina Alexandrova leads on Serve Rating (51), Iva Jovic on Return Rating (68).
- Last match: Iva Jovic dropped just 3 games past Tatjana Maria.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadAlexandrova E.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d) · Jovic I.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-26 | US Open | R64 | hard | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 4-6 6-4 7-5 |