Jasmine Paolini vs Robin MontgomeryWimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 128
#15WTA
1905ELO
1748Grass ELO
$2.0MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 30 June 2026 ·
grass
Court 12 · 1st on
#199WTA
1739ELO
1732Grass ELO
21 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Paolini J.
0-6 6-4 7-5
Montgomery R.
Paolini J.
0672
Montgomery R.
6451

Jasmine Paolini defeated Robin Montgomery in the Round of 128 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 0-6, 6-4, 7-5 in Paolini's favor. Paolini converted 50% of her break points and secured 3 service breaks, while Montgomery converted 26% of her break points and secured 5 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
44%
Service points won·Even
57%
59%
Return points won·Even
44%
43%
Break points saved·Even
59%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.9
4.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
5.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
77
55
Break points saved·Dominant
46
81
Break points won·Dominant
96
44
Deciding sets·Dominant
95
65
Tiebreaks·Even
86
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Paolini J.69%
Montgomery R.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Paolini J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.4+34 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Grass Elo 1736
7.2Overall Elo 1922
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1747
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.36 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
10.010 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
10.09-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
2.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
88

Montgomery R.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
17°CDrizzle
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 83%

Draw