Jasmine Paolini vs Ajla Tomljanovic — Indian Wells Round of 32

Indian Wells · WTA · Round of 32
Jasmine Paolini
ITA7
Jasmine Paolini
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 4 March 2026
hard
Ajla Tomljanovic
AUS
Ajla Tomljanovic
#94WTA
1745ELO
1723Hard ELO
33 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWL
Paolini J.
7-5 5-7 6-1
Tomljanovic A.
Paolini J.
7562
Tomljanovic A.
5711

Jasmine Paolini defeated Ajla Tomljanovic 7-5 5-7 6-1 in the Indian Wells round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #17, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 16. Jasmine Paolini extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Jasmine Paolini came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–5 5–7 6–1.

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR64clayJasmine Paolini6-3 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Tomljanovic A.

Tomljanovic A.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Tomljanovic A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paolini J.Tomljanovic A.
31
Serve
26
55
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Paolini J.Tomljanovic A.
1st serve in·Even
67%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
57%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
44%
Service points won·Even
55%
58%
Return points won·Even
43%
46%
Break points saved·Even
57%
59%
Aces / match·Even
2.3
1.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Paolini J.Tomljanovic A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
89
71
Break points saved·Clear edge
87
73
Break points won·Slight edge
99
92
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
75
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
93
78

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paolini J.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Tomljanovic A.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+150 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1723
7.2Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1745
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.0
Surface form
5.5
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.2
Minutes 14d
6.7
7.0
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
5.7
Country comfort
5.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Paolini J.Tomljanovic A.
Freshness·Clear edge
76
97

Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Tomljanovic A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 11%

Draw

Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Rybakina E.[3]
3-66-37-66
Semi-finals
Sabalenka A.[1]
Noskova L.[14]
6-36-4
Rybakina E.[3]
Svitolina E.[9]
7-56-4
Quarter-finals
Rybakina E.[3]
Pegula J.[5]
6-17-64
Sabalenka A.[1]
Mboko V.[10]
7-606-4
Svitolina E.[9]
Swiatek I.[2]
6-24-66-4
Noskova L.[14]
Gibson T.
6-24-66-2
R16
Svitolina E.[9]
Siniakova K.
6-11-1
Rybakina E.[3]
Kartal S.
6-44-3
Noskova L.[14]
Eala A.[31]
6-26-0
Sabalenka A.[1]
Osaka N.[16]
6-26-4
Pegula J.[5]
Bencic B.[12]
6-37-65
Gibson T.
Paolini J.[7]
7-52-66-1
Mboko V.[10]
Anisimova A.[6]
6-46-1
Swiatek I.[2]
Muchova K.[13]
6-26-0
R32
Eala A.[31]
Gauff C.[4]
6-22-0
Pegula J.[5]
Ostapenko J.[26]
4-66-36-2
Osaka N.[16]
Osorio C.
6-13-66-1
Anisimova A.[6]
Raducanu E.[25]
6-16-1
Muchova K.[13]
Ruzic A.
6-06-3
Rybakina E.[3]
Kostyuk M.[28]
6-46-4
Bencic B.[12]
Mertens E.[22]
6-26-3
Gibson T.
Tauson C.[17]
7-624-66-4
Swiatek I.[2]
Sakkari M.[32]
6-36-2
Kartal S.
Keys M.[15]
2-66-26-3
Svitolina E.[9]
Krueger A.
6-46-2
Mboko V.[10]
Kalinskaya A.[23]
6-46-1
Siniakova K.
Andreeva M.[8]
4-67-656-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Cristian J.
6-46-1
Paolini J.[7]
Tomljanovic A.
7-55-76-1
Noskova L.[14]
Cirstea S.
6-756-46-4
R64
Siniakova K.
Fernandez L.[27]
5-76-47-61
Gauff C.[4]
Rakhimova K.
6-37-65
Muchova K.[13]
Bondar A.
7-56-2
Bencic B.[12]
Hunter S.
6-36-2
Swiatek I.[2]
Day K.
6-07-62
Osorio C.
Jovic I.[18]
4-67-646-3
Noskova L.[14]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-36-3
Keys M.[15]
Parry D.
6-46-3
Raducanu E.[25]
Zakharova A.
6-16-3
Kartal S.
Navarro E.[20]
6-13-67-62
Tomljanovic A.
Wang X.[30]
6-36-1
Kostyuk M.[28]
Townsend T.
6-36-2
Paolini J.[7]
Potapova A.
6-756-26-3
Sakkari M.[32]
Tagger L.
7-56-0
Ostapenko J.[26]
Volynets K.
6-47-65
Ruzic A.
Zheng Q.[24]
6-47-5
Cirstea S.
Shnaider D.[21]
6-27-60
Mboko V.[10]
Birrell K.
6-47-65
Gibson T.
Alexandrova E.[11]
6-37-5
Mertens E.[22]
Bucsa C.
6-26-1
Andreeva M.[8]
Sierra S.
6-06-0
Cristian J.
Joint M.[29]
0-66-27-5
Eala A.[31]
Yastremska D.
7-54-67-5
Anisimova A.[6]
Blinkova A.
5-76-16-0
Rybakina E.[3]
Baptiste H.
7-652-66-2
Osaka N.[16]
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
7-56-2
Svitolina E.[9]
Siegemund L.
7-654-66-3
Krueger A.
Samsonova L.[19]
3-67-56-2
Kalinskaya A.[23]
Sonmez Z.
6-47-64
Pegula J.[5]
Vekic D.
4-66-26-3
Tauson C.[17]
Putintseva Y.
7-696-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Sakatsume H.
6-46-2
R128
Volynets K.
Sramkova R.
6-10-0
Vekic D.
Valentova T.
7-647-64
Cirstea S.
Maria T.
6-44-66-3
Osorio C.
Stephens S.
6-46-1
Siegemund L.
Marcinko P.
3-66-36-4
Zakharova A.
Seidel E.
6-26-2
Bucsa C.
Vidmanova D.
6-46-0
Kartal S.
Tararudee L.
6-46-4
Gibson T.
Li A.
6-37-5
Day K.
Jones F.
6-36-1
Tagger L.
Gracheva V.
6-26-4
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Haddad Maia B.
6-16-756-1
Townsend T.
Bouzkova M.
6-26-1
Tomljanovic A.
Ruse E.
7-56-2
Parry D.
Williams V.
6-36-746-1
Baptiste H.
Arango E.
2-66-26-3
Sonmez Z.
Kessler M.
7-676-0
Sierra S.
Stearns P.
7-57-5
Sakatsume H.
Parks A.
6-46-3
Rakhimova K.
Andreescu B.
6-766-06-1
Putintseva Y.
Badosa P.
6-46-2
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
Mcnally C.
6-26-746-4
Cristian J.
Tjen J.
4-66-47-66
Bondar A.
Jacquemot E.
7-657-5
Siniakova K.
Kenin S.
1-66-46-1
Potapova A.
Stakusic M.
4-66-17-5
Ruzic A.
Brady J.
3-66-46-2
Birrell K.
Selekhmeteva O.
6-16-4
Blinkova A.
Galfi D.
6-47-5
Krueger A.
Linette M.
6-16-4
Yastremska D.
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Hunter S.
Frech M.
3-67-56-3