Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi ItoWimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 128
#107WTA
1792ELO
1673Grass ELO
$505kYTD
$6.5MCAREER
26 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Court 9 · 4th on
#289WTA
1549ELO
1383Grass ELO
22 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLLW
Yastremska D.
7-6 4-6 7-5
Ito A.
Yastremska D.
7472
Ito A.
6651

Dayana Yastremska defeated Aoi Ito in the Round of 128 at Wimbledon, winning 7-6, 4-6, 7-5 on the grass courts. The match saw both players hit three aces and make a similar number of double faults, 5 for Yastremska and 4 for Ito. Yastremska won 65% of her first-serve points, while Ito converted 50% of her break points, and both players earned 7 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
43%
Service points won·Even
55%
54%
Return points won·Even
43%
44%
Break points saved·Even
49%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.7
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Yastremska D.87%
Ito A.13%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Yastremska D. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.6+286 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.4Grass Elo 1388
8.0Overall Elo 1792
ELO gap
2.0Overall Elo 1550
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.86 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
2.22 of last 8 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
5.5Won 58% in United Kingdom (24)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
96
93

Yastremska D.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Ito A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 41%

Draw