Aryna Sabalenka vs Teodora Kostovic — Wimbledon Round of 128
Sabalenka A.
Aryna Sabalenka faces Teodora Kostovic in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Aryna Sabalenka is the paper favourite — ranked #1, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 550-point grass Elo advantage — but Teodora Kostovic rides a 3-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Aryna Sabalenka comes in with 6 days of rest and 80 games in 14d, vs Teodora Kostovic's 1 and 69.
- Stage: Aryna Sabalenka defends last year's semi-final.
- Win streak: Teodora Kostovic arrives on a 3-match winning run.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadSabalenka A.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d) · Kostovic T.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 69 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.