Aryna Sabalenka vs Cristina BucsaBrisbane Round of 32

Brisbane · WTA · Round of 32
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#35WTA
1722ELO
1710Hard ELO
$900kYTD
$5.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWWWW
Sabalenka A.
6-0 6-1
Bucsa C.
Sabalenka A.
662
Bucsa C.
010

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Cristina Bucsa 6-0 6-1 in the Brisbane round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-25US OpenR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Bucsa C.

Bucsa C.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Bucsa C.
96
Serve
22
39
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
65%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
74%
60%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
55%
41%
Service points won·Clear edge
67%
54%
Return points won·Even
43%
47%
Break points saved·Clear edge
69%
46%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.3
0.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
98
60
Break points saved·Clear edge
98
79
Break points won·Slight edge
100
93
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
68
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
27

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 27 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
10.0+491 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1710
10.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1722
5.0
H2H
5.0
8.0
Surface form
7.8
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.9
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
86

Sabalenka A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw