Caty Mcnally vs Elena Rybakina — Wimbledon Round of 64
Mcnally C.
Caty Mcnally faces Elena Rybakina in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Elena Rybakina is the paper favourite — ranked #2, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 170-point grass Elo advantage — but Caty Mcnally arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on grass to Elena Rybakina's 2. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, though this is their first meeting on grass.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Caty Mcnally 116 games in 14 days, Elena Rybakina 22.
- Serve & return: Elena Rybakina leads on Serve Rating (100), Caty Mcnally on Return Rating (58).
- Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Beijing 2025.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMcnally C.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-24 | Beijing | R64 | hard | Elena Rybakina | 7-5 4-6 6-3 |
| 2021-04-05 | Charleston 1 | R64 | clay | Caty Mcnally | 6-4 0-0 RET |