Karolina Pliskova vs Caty Mcnally — Nottingham Round of 16
Pliskova K.
Karolina Pliskova faces Caty Mcnally in the Nottingham round of 16 on grass. Karolina Pliskova holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 40-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Pliskova K. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Karolina Pliskova dropped the opening set before beating Sara Bejlek 2–6 7–6 6–2.
- Last match: Caty Mcnally handed Antonia Ruzic a second-set bagel in a 6–3 6–0 win.
- Fatigue load: Karolina Pliskova carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadPliskova K.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Mcnally C.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 65 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-08-30 | US Open | R128 | hard | Karolina Pliskova | 6-3 6-4 |