Victoria Mboko vs Elena RybakinaDoha Quarter-final

Doha · WTA · Quarter-final
#10WTA
2006ELO
2006Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$3.3MCAREER
19 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 8 February 2026
hard
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
Mboko V.
7-5 4-6 6-4
Rybakina E.
Mboko V.
7462
Rybakina E.
5641

Victoria Mboko defeated Elena Rybakina 7-5 4-6 6-4 in the Doha quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's quarter-final. Victoria Mboko narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-20TokyoQFhardElena Rybakina6-3 7-6(4)
2025-07-27MontrealSFhardVictoria Mboko1-6 7-5 7-6(4)
2025-07-21WashingtonR16hardElena Rybakina6-3 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Mboko V.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Mboko V.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mboko V.Rybakina E.
58
Serve
100
53
Return
34

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
53%
Service points won·Even
62%
65%
Return points won·Even
44%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.8
6.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.7
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
97
92
Break points saved·Even
95
98
Break points won·Even
100
96
Deciding sets·Even
100
97
Tiebreaks·
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 2006
Surface ELO
6.4+104 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 2006
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 2122
3.3
H2H
6.7
7.4
Surface form
9.3
0.0
Win streak
10.08-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
7.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
91

Rybakina E.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 39%

Draw