Victoria Mboko vs Elena Rybakina — Montreal Semi-final

Montreal · WTA · Semi-final
Victoria Mboko
CAN
Victoria Mboko
#10WTA
2006ELO
2006Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$3.3MCAREER
19 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 27 July 2025
hard
Elena Rybakina
KAZ9
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
Mboko V.
1-6 7-5 7-6
Rybakina E.
Mboko V.
17772
Rybakina E.
65641

Victoria Mboko defeated Elena Rybakina 1-6 7-5 7-6 in the Montreal semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Victoria Mboko narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-08DohaQFhardVictoria Mboko7-5 4-6 6-4
2025-10-20TokyoQFhardElena Rybakina6-3 7-6(4)
2025-07-21WashingtonR16hardElena Rybakina6-3 7-5
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Mboko V.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Mboko V.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mboko V.Rybakina E.
58
Serve
100
53
Return
34

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Mboko V.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
65%
Return points won·Even
45%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.2
7.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (88 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Mboko V.Rybakina E.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
97
92
Break points saved·Even
95
98
Break points won·Even
100
96
Deciding sets·Even
100
97
Tiebreaks·
—
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mboko V.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Rybakina E.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 2006
Surface ELO
6.4+104 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 2006
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 2122
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.6
Surface form
6.0
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.2
Minutes 14d
6.4
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
4.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Mboko V.Rybakina E.
Freshness·
—
91

Rybakina E.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
25°CDrizzle
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 76%

Draw

Final
Mboko V.
Osaka N.
2-66-46-1
Semi-finals
Osaka N.
Tauson C.[16]
6-27-67
Mboko V.
Rybakina E.[9]
1-67-57-64
Quarter-finals
Rybakina E.[9]
Kostyuk M.[24]
6-12-1
Tauson C.[16]
Keys M.[6]
6-16-4
Mboko V.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-46-2
Osaka N.
Svitolina E.[10]
6-26-2
R16
Keys M.[6]
Muchova K.[11]
4-66-37-5
Mboko V.
Gauff C.[1]
6-16-4
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Zhu L.
7-51-66-2
Tauson C.[16]
Swiatek I.[2]
7-616-3
Osaka N.
Sevastova A.
6-16-0
Svitolina E.[10]
Anisimova A.[5]
6-46-1
Kostyuk M.[24]
Kessler M.[28]
5-76-36-3
Rybakina E.[9]
Yastremska D.[30]
5-76-27-5
R32
Zhu L.
Lamens S.
6-26-2
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Ito A.
4-67-56-3
Yastremska D.[30]
Navarro E.[8]
7-56-4
Muchova K.[11]
Bencic B.[17]
6-726-26-3
Kostyuk M.[24]
Kasatkina D.[15]
3-66-37-64
Swiatek I.[2]
Lys E.
6-26-2
Tauson C.[16]
Starodubtseva Y.
6-36-0
Sevastova A.
Pegula J.[3]
3-66-46-1
Svitolina E.[10]
Kalinskaya A.
6-16-1
Mboko V.
Bouzkova M.
1-66-36-0
Keys M.[6]
Mcnally C.
2-66-36-3
Anisimova A.[5]
Raducanu E.
6-26-1
Gauff C.[1]
Kudermetova V.
4-67-56-2
Osaka N.
Ostapenko J.[22]
6-26-4
Kessler M.[28]
Andreeva M.[4]
7-656-4
Rybakina E.[9]
Cristian J.
6-07-65
R64
Navarro E.[8]
Marino R.
6-16-2
Mcnally C.
Sramkova R.[31]
6-26-2
Muchova K.[11]
Ruzic A.
7-57-5
Raducanu E.
Stearns P.[32]
6-26-4
Sevastova A.
Linette M.[25]
6-34-66-4
Andreeva M.[4]
Andreescu B.
W/O
Kudermetova V.
Danilovic O.[29]
6-46-2
Swiatek I.[2]
Guo H.
6-36-1
Gauff C.[1]
Collins D.
7-54-67-62
Ostapenko J.[22]
Zarazua R.
6-24-66-2
Ito A.
Paolini J.[7]
2-67-57-65
Rybakina E.[9]
Baptiste H.
6-46-3
Zhu L.
Alexandrova E.[12]
1-66-26-4
Kessler M.[28]
Joint M.
4-66-46-3
Cristian J.
Noskova L.[20]
6-36-4
Kasatkina D.[15]
Blinkova A.
6-16-4
Kostyuk M.[24]
Vondrousova M.
2-66-36-2
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Krueger A.[26]
6-46-4
Lamens S.
Haddad Maia B.[18]
6-21-66-3
Bouzkova M.
Shnaider D.[14]
6-27-65
Mboko V.
Kenin S.[23]
6-26-3
Lys E.
Pavlyuchenkova A.[27]
6-36-4
Starodubtseva Y.
Frech M.[21]
6-16-1
Tauson C.[16]
Bronzetti L.
6-16-2
Bencic B.[17]
Bouchard E.
6-23-66-4
Keys M.[6]
Siegemund L.
6-26-1
Pegula J.[3]
Sakkari M.
7-56-4
Osaka N.
Samsonova L.[13]
4-67-666-3
Svitolina E.[10]
Rakhimova K.
7-56-2
Kalinskaya A.
Mertens E.[19]
1-67-646-2
Anisimova A.[5]
Sun L.
6-47-65
Yastremska D.[30]
Osorio C.
3-67-656-2
R128
Zhu L.
Gracheva V.
6-47-63
Marino R.
Jacquemot E.
7-626-1
Sun L.
Cirstea S.
6-37-5
Raducanu E.
Ruse E.
6-26-4
Kalinskaya A.
Li A.
7-660-66-3
Rakhimova K.
Cross K.
4-66-36-2
Osaka N.
Arseneault A.
6-46-2
Andreescu B.
Krejcikova B.
6-36-4
Starodubtseva Y.
Wang Y.
6-766-46-4
Zarazua R.
Boulter K.
6-17-5
Lamens S.
Kudermetova P.
6-34-66-2
Mcnally C.
Parks A.
6-45-77-67
Joint M.
Fernandez L.
6-46-1
Ruzic A.
Potapova A.
2-67-56-0
Osorio C.
Pera B.
6-37-5
Sevastova A.
Tomljanovic A.
6-33-66-4
Sakkari M.
Branstine C.
6-23-67-5
Siegemund L.
Maria T.
7-56-767-62
Bouchard E.
Arango E.
6-42-66-2
Bronzetti L.
Mandlik E.
4-67-656-2
Lys E.
Jeanjean L.
6-16-4
Cristian J.
Stakusic M.
2-66-26-2
Baptiste H.
Osuigwe W.
7-56-1
Blinkova A.
Dolehide C.
6-46-1
Vondrousova M.
Eala A.
3-66-16-2
Ito A.
Volynets K.
6-22-66-2
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Chirico L.
5-77-56-4
Bouzkova M.
Uchijima M.
6-27-64
Mboko V.
Birrell K.
7-56-3
Kudermetova V.
Bucsa C.
5-76-27-5
Collins D.
Tomova V.
6-37-5
Guo H.
Putintseva Y.
6-36-3