Caty Mcnally vs Ajla TomljanovicGuangzhou Round of 16

Guangzhou · WTA · Round of 16
#50WTA
1817ELO
1731Hard ELO
$711kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 20 October 2025
hard
#94WTA
1745ELO
1723Hard ELO
33 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWL
Mcnally C.
6-4 4-6 6-3
Tomljanovic A.
Mcnally C.
6462
Tomljanovic A.
4631

Caty Mcnally defeated Ajla Tomljanovic 6-4 4-6 6-3 in the Guangzhou round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Caty Mcnally came in ranked #50, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Caty Mcnally extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Caty Mcnally closed it out in three sets, 6–4 4–6 6–3.

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-13s HertogenboschQFgrassAjla Tomljanovic4-6 4-6
2026-05-24Roland GarrosR128clayCaty Mcnally6-3 6.5-7.7 3-6
2025-03-05Indian WellsR128hardCaty Mcnally6-4 0-0 RET

Serve vs return

This season
Mcnally C.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Tomljanovic A.

Tomljanovic A.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Mcnally C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mcnally C.Tomljanovic A.
26
Serve
26
45
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
71%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
43%
Service points won·Even
57%
57%
Return points won·Even
47%
44%
Break points saved·Even
55%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.2
2.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.9
6.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (77 vs 70). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
73
71
Break points saved·Even
73
73
Break points won·Slight edge
99
92
Deciding sets·Even
74
75
Tiebreaks·Even
78
78

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
4.9+8 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.1Hard Elo 1723
5.5Overall Elo 1817
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1745
10.0
H2H
0.0
4.6
Surface form
5.6
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
6.9
3-set count
4.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
96
97

Mcnally C.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Tomljanovic A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast