Kayla Day vs Madison Keys — Wimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 128
USAQ
Kayla Day
#121WTA
1595ELO
1420Grass ELO
26 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 30 June 2026 ·
grass
Court 18 · 1st on
Madison Keys
USA26
Madison Keys
#24WTA
1987ELO
1843Grass ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLWWW
Day K.
7-6 4-6 3-6
Keys M.
Day K.
7431
Keys M.
6662

Madison Keys defeated Kayla Day in the Round of 128 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 6-7, 6-4, 6-3 in favor of Keys. Keys converted 33% of her break points and made 3 service breaks to Day's 1, while Keys had 79% first-serve win percentage and both players hit 3 aces.

Key context

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-05-29Roland GarrosR64clayKayla Day6-2 4-6 6-4
2016-08-29US OpenR64hardMadison Keys6-1 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Day K.Keys M.
1st serve in·Even
67%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
48%
44%
Break points saved·Even
60%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.4
4.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Day K.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
39
89
Break points saved·Clear edge
66
85
Break points won·Even
88
92
Deciding sets·Dominant
18
94
Tiebreaks·Dominant
67
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Day K.7%
Keys M.93%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Keys M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Day K.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Keys M.
8.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.4Grass Elo 1427
Surface ELO
9.6+366 Grass Elo edge
0.5Overall Elo 1608
ELO gap
9.5Overall Elo 1967
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.85 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.19 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
6.6Won 76% in United Kingdom (59)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Day K.Keys M.
Freshness·Slight edge
75
66

Day K.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d) · Keys M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
17°CDrizzle
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 83%

Draw