Kayla Day vs Madison Keys — Wimbledon Round of 128
USA
Day K.Kayla Day faces Madison Keys in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Madison Keys holds the paper edge — ranked #27, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 350-point grass Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, though this is their first meeting on grass.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Keys M. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Kayla Day comes in with 2 days of rest and 55 games in 14d, vs Madison Keys's 1 and 124.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Madison Keys has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 92 vs 37).
- Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Roland Garros 2023.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-29 | Roland Garros | R64 | clay | Kayla Day | 6-2 4-6 6-4 |
| 2016-08-29 | US Open | R64 | hard | Madison Keys | 6-1 6-1 |