Jasmine Paolini vs Alexandra Eala — Wimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 16
Jasmine Paolini
ITA
Jasmine Paolini
#17WTA
1922ELO
1770Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLWLLWL
—
Sets
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
grass
Alexandra Eala
PHI
Alexandra Eala
#32WTA
1911ELO
1822Grass ELO
$871kYTD
$2.2MCAREER
21 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLLWWWLW
Paolini J.
vs
Eala A.

Jasmine Paolini faces Alexandra Eala in the Wimbledon round of 16 on grass. Alexandra Eala holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC
Paolini J.37%
Eala A.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Eala A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paolini J.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Eala A.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.4Grass Elo 1770
Surface ELO
5.6+52 Grass Elo edge
5.2Overall Elo 1922
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1911
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.66 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.6Won 60% in GBR (20)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Paolini J.Stable
Eala A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

13 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Paolini J.Eala A.
1st serve in·Even
66%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
58%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
55%
58%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
56%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.5
0.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Eala A.

Eala A.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Eala A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Paolini J.Eala A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
89
76
Break points saved·Clear edge
87
75
Break points won·Even
99
96
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
85
Tiebreaks·Dominant
93
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Paolini J.Eala A.
Freshness·Even
74
77

Paolini J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Eala A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 61%

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-15DubaiR32hardAlexandra Eala6-1 7-6(5)
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.[13]
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.[29]
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.[26]
1-64-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.[9]
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.[25]
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.[2]
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Ostapenko J.
6-46-4
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.[14]
1-63-6
Muchova K.[10]
Sawangkaew M.
6-27-61
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
3-65-7
Pegula J.[4]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-16-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Jovic I.[16]
3-66-34-6
Bencic B.[11]
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-44-67-66
Liu C.
Gauff C.[7]
3-67-652-6
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
3-62-6
Navarro E.[23]
Kostyuk M.[12]
2-66-41-6
Paolini J.
Sakkari M.
6-16-2
Eala A.[29]
Swiatek I.[3]
7-696-2
Anisimova A.
Keys M.
6-32-63-6
Cirstea S.
Noskova L.
6-23-66-79
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.[21]
6-46-734-6
Mertens E.[25]
Rybakina E.[2]
7-646-1
Sabalenka A.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.[10]
Krejcikova B.
Pegula J.
Jovic I.
Bencic B.
Gauff C.
Krueger A.
Kostyuk M.
Paolini J.
Eala A.
Keys M.
Noskova L.
Bouzkova M.
Mertens E.
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