Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk — Wimbledon Round of 16
Krueger A.
Ashlyn Krueger faces Marta Kostyuk in the Wimbledon round of 16 on grass. Marta Kostyuk is the paper favourite — ranked #13, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 30-point grass Elo advantage — but Ashlyn Krueger has won their only previous meeting, though none on grass.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Kostyuk M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Ashlyn Krueger 119 games in 14 days, Marta Kostyuk 46.
- Last match: Ashlyn Krueger dropped just 5 games past Daria Snigur.
- Win streak: Both arrive in form — Ashlyn Krueger on a 11-match run, Marta Kostyuk on 3.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadKrueger A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d) · Kostyuk M.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-06 | Adelaide | R32 | hard | Ashlyn Krueger | 4-6 6-2 6-2 |