Alexandra Eala vs Jasmine PaoliniDubai Round of 32

Dubai · WTA · Round of 32
#32WTA
1895ELO
1833Hard ELO
$871kYTD
$2.2MCAREER
21 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 15 February 2026
hard
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Eala A.
6-1 7-6
Paolini J.
Eala A.
6772
Paolini J.
1650

Alexandra Eala defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-1 7-6 in the Dubai round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #17, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 16. Alexandra Eala claimed a first win over Jasmine Paolini in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Alexandra Eala came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 7–6.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-06WimbledonR16grassJasmine Paolini6-4 4-6 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Eala A.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Eala A.

Serve advantage — Eala A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Eala A.Paolini J.
20
Serve
31
63
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
58%
55%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
54%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
0.9
2.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
77
89
Break points saved·Clear edge
75
87
Break points won·Even
97
99
Deciding sets·Clear edge
82
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
79
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1833
Surface ELO
6.1+40 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1895
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1905
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.6
Surface form
3.9
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.6
Minutes 14d
9.2
7.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
81
76

Eala A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 24%

Draw