Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Bublik — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32
Frances Tiafoe
USA
Frances Tiafoe
#19ATP
1918ELO
1823Grass ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWWLWW
—
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
grass
Alexander Bublik
KAZ
Alexander Bublik
#11ATP
1889ELO
1802Grass ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWLLWW
Tiafoe F.
vs
Bublik A.

Frances Tiafoe faces Alexander Bublik in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Alexander Bublik is the paper favourite — ranked #11, defending last year's round of 128 — but Frances Tiafoe arrives in form, winning all 6 of their last grass matches to Alexander Bublik's 4. They have met 4 times, the series level at 2–2.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC
Tiafoe F.48%
Bublik A.52%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Tiafoe F.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Bublik A.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.3+21 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Grass Elo 1802
5.4Overall Elo 1918
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1889
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
9.39 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.87 of last 10 on grass
9.07-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
5.2Won 54% in GBR (39)
Country comfort
5.6Won 60% in GBR (30)
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Tiafoe F.Stable
Bublik A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

25 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
Tiafoe F.Bublik A.
1st serve in·Even
61%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
67%
Return points won·Even
35%
34%
Break points saved·Even
65%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.6
9.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.4
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Tiafoe F.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Bublik A.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Tiafoe F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Tiafoe F.Bublik A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
83
88
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Slight edge
57
67
Deciding sets·Slight edge
93
99
Tiebreaks·Even
98
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Tiafoe F.Bublik A.
Freshness·Even
65
69

Tiafoe F.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 40 games (7d) · Bublik A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 51 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°CPartly cloudy
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 45%

Head to head

2–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-10-30Paris MastersR64hardAlexander Bublik6-3 6-4
2022-06-27WimbledonR32grassFrances Tiafoe3-6 7-6(1) 7-6(3) 6-4
2022-06-20EastbourneR32grassAlexander Bublik5-7 7-6(4) 6-0
2019-07-29WashingtonR32hardFrances Tiafoe6-1 7-6(5)
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-666-77
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[24]
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
6-36-26-2
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
2-66-26-756-46-3
Khachanov K.
Hanfmann Y.
6-36-46-4
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.
6-746-36-731-6
Mensik J.
Dimitrov G.
6-756-45-73-6
Berrettini M.
Fils A.
6-47-53-66-3
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
7-664-66-26-3
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
5-77-636-36-3
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
6-26-27-5
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
6-746-46-747-662-6
Tiafoe F.
Choinski J.
4-66-27-56-2
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.
3-64-66-75
Lehecka J.
Molcan A.
6-36-26-4
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
4-66-734-6
Halys Q.
Giron M.
6-753-64-6
Royer V.
Zverev A.
1-63-66-73
Sinner J.
Brooksby J.
Jodar R.
Mochizuki S.
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.
Struff J.
Medvedev D.
Auger Aliassime F.
Zheng M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Fucsovics M.
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.[24]
Rinderknech A.
Djokovic N.
De Minaur A.
Svajda Z.
Khachanov K.
Cobolli F.
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
Bergs Z.
Fery A.
Fritz T.
Sonego L.
Tiafoe F.
Bublik A.
Lehecka J.
Munar J.
Giron M.
Zverev A.
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