Frances Tiafoe vs Jan Choinski — Wimbledon Round of 64
GBR
Tiafoe F.
Frances Tiafoe faces Jan Choinski in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Frances Tiafoe holds the paper edge — ranked #19, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 390-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Tiafoe F. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Frances Tiafoe comes in with 10 days of rest and 89 games in 14d, vs Jan Choinski's 1 and 221.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Frances Tiafoe has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 83 vs 54).
- Win streak: Frances Tiafoe arrives on a 6-match winning run.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadTiafoe F.: 10 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Choinski J.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.