Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Bublik — Wimbledon Round of 32
Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32
USA17#23ATP
1918ELO
1823Grass ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLWWWW
2 — 3
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
grass
No.1 Court · 3rd on
KAZ10#13ATP
1889ELO
1802Grass ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
Tiafoe F.6-4 6-7 6-7 6-4 3-6
Bublik A.
Tiafoe F.
666632
Bublik A.
477463
Alexander Bublik defeated Frances Tiafoe in the Round of 32 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 7-6, 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 in favor of Bublik. Bublik hit 48 aces and won 86% of his first-serve points, while Tiafoe hit 12 aces and won 76% of his first-serve points.
Key context
- Match story: Alexander Bublik dropped the opening set before beating Frances Tiafoe 4–6 7–6 7–6 4–6 6–3.
Head to head
2–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-30 | Paris Masters | R64 | hard | Alexander Bublik | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022-06-27 | Wimbledon | R32 | grass | Frances Tiafoe | 3-6 7-6 7-6 6-4 |
| 2022-06-20 | Eastbourne | R32 | grass | Alexander Bublik | 5-7 7-6(4) 6-0 |
| 2019-07-29 | Washington | R32 | hard | Frances Tiafoe | 6-1 7-6 |
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
61%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
51%
Service points won·Even
67%
68%
Return points won·Even
36%
33%
Break points saved·Even
67%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.9
10.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
3.5
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTCTiafoe F.48%
Bublik A.52%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
5.3+21 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO4.7Grass Elo 1802
5.4Overall Elo 1918
ELO gap4.6Overall Elo 1889
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H5.0First meeting on grass
9.39 of last 10 on grass
Surface form6.87 of last 10 on grass
9.07-match win streak
Win streakFatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count4.02 three-setters in 14 days
5.3Won 56% in United Kingdom (27)
Country comfort5.6Won 59% in United Kingdom (32)
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts6.0Reached the R128 here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 42%