Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik — Wimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 16
Taylor Fritz
USA
Taylor Fritz
#7ATP
1909ELO
1857Grass ELO
$1.6MYTD
$31MCAREER
28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWWLW
—
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
grass
Alexander Bublik
KAZ
Alexander Bublik
#11ATP
1889ELO
1802Grass ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLWWLLW
Fritz T.
vs
Bublik A.

Taylor Fritz faces Alexander Bublik in the Wimbledon round of 16 on grass. Taylor Fritz holds the paper edge — ranked #7, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage. They have met 8 times, the series level at 4–4, Taylor Fritz ahead 2–0 on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Fritz T.63%
Bublik A.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Fritz T. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Fritz T.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Bublik A.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.7+55 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.3Grass Elo 1802
5.2Overall Elo 1909
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1889
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
8.28 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.17 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
6.0Won 67% in GBR (42)
Country comfort
5.7Won 61% in GBR (31)
Context
8.5Reached the semis here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Fritz T.Stable
Bublik A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

20 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
Fritz T.Bublik A.
1st serve in·Even
69%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
80%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
71%
67%
Return points won·Even
33%
34%
Break points saved·Even
68%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
15.9
9.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Fritz T.serving97% hold

wins 78% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Bublik A.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Fritz T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Fritz T.Bublik A.
Clutch Rating·Even
87
87
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Slight edge
60
67
Deciding sets·Even
99
99
Tiebreaks·Even
99
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Fritz T.Bublik A.
Freshness·Slight edge
72
63

Fritz T.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d) · Bublik A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 83 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 47%

Head to head

4–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-13StuttgartSFgrassTaylor Fritz4-6 4-6
2025-10-27Paris MastersR16hardAlexander Bublik7-6(5) 6-2
2024-07-29Paris OlympicsR64clayTaylor Fritz6-4 6-4
2022-09-15Davis Cup Finals RR: USA vs KAZRRhardTaylor Fritz7-6(6) 1-6 6-3
2022-06-20EastbourneQFgrassTaylor Fritz6-3 6-2
2021-03-22Miami MastersR16hardAlexander Bublik6-7(5) 6-3 6-4
2020-01-13AdelaideR32hardAlexander Bublik6-4 7-6(4)
2019-09-23ChengduR32hardAlexander Bublik4-6 7-5 7-5
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-666-77
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[24]
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
6-36-26-2
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
2-66-26-756-46-3
Khachanov K.[19]
Hanfmann Y.
6-36-46-4
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-746-36-731-6
Mensik J.[15]
Dimitrov G.
6-756-45-73-6
Berrettini M.
Fils A.[20]
6-47-53-66-3
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
7-664-66-26-3
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
5-77-636-36-3
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
6-26-27-5
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
6-746-46-747-662-6
Tiafoe F.[17]
Choinski J.
4-66-27-56-2
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.[10]
3-64-66-75
Lehecka J.[13]
Molcan A.
6-36-26-4
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
4-66-734-6
Halys Q.
Giron M.
6-753-64-6
Royer V.
Zverev A.[2]
1-63-66-73
Sinner J.[1]
Brooksby J.
6-46-36-4
Jodar R.[23]
Mochizuki S.
6-16-754-64-6
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.[21]
4-67-657-56-2
Struff J.
Medvedev D.[8]
7-647-657-5
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Zheng M.
7-616-26-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Fucsovics M.
7-636-26-3
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-36-36-3
Rinderknech A.[25]
Djokovic N.[7]
5-74-66-16-74
De Minaur A.[5]
Svajda Z.
6-25-76-26-4
Khachanov K.
Cobolli F.
6-06-747-652-62-6
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
6-36-43-65-76-3
Bergs Z.
Fery A.
6-25-76-26-736-75
Fritz T.
Sonego L.
4-66-36-47-65
Tiafoe F.
Bublik A.
6-46-756-7116-43-6
Lehecka J.
Munar J.
6-46-44-66-4
Giron M.
Zverev A.
2-66-744-6
Sinner J.
Mochizuki S.
Hurkacz H.
Struff J.
Auger Aliassime F.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Safiullin R.
Djokovic N.
De Minaur A.
Cobolli F.
Dimitrov G.
Fery A.
Fritz T.
Bublik A.
Lehecka J.
Zverev A.
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