Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz — Stuttgart Quarter-final

Stuttgart · ATP · Quarter-final

ITA

Mattia Bellucci

#78ATP

1700ELO

1624Grass ELO

$414kYTD

$2.3MCAREER

25 yrs · 175 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Friday, 12 June 2026 · 12:30

grass

CENTER COURT · 2nd on

USA

Taylor Fritz

#9ATP

1868ELO

1808Grass ELO

$1.1MYTD

$30MCAREER

28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLLWWLWLW

Mattia Bellucci faces Taylor Fritz in the Stuttgart quarter-final on grass. Taylor Fritz holds the paper edge — ranked #9, defending the title, a roughly 180-point grass Elo advantage.

Key context

Last match: Taylor Fritz dropped the opening set before beating Martin Landaluce 6–7 7–5 7–6.
Fatigue load: Mattia Bellucci carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Stage: Taylor Fritz defends the title here.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC

Bellucci M.20%

Fritz T.80%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fritz T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Bellucci M.

6.0

Even matchUmpiry Score

Fritz T.

6.6

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

2.7Grass Elo 1624

Surface ELO

7.3+184 Grass Elo edge

2.9Overall Elo 1700

ELO gap

7.1Overall Elo 1868

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.88 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

8.99 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

When it starts

2nd on CENTER COURT · not before Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead

Conditions

Weather forecast

15°CRain

Wind 13 km/hHumidity 84%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Bellucci M.Fritz T.

61%1st serve in+8%69%

72%1st serve points won+8%80%

49%2nd serve points won+2%51%

63%Service points won+8%71%

39%Return points won+6%33%

61%Break points saved+7%68%

4.3Aces / match+11.615.9

2.7Double faults / match+1.11.6

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.