Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci — US Open Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Round of 64
Taylor Fritz
USA9
Taylor Fritz
#10ATP
1909ELO
1839Hard ELO
28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWLWWWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 ·
hard
Mattia Bellucci
ITA
Mattia Bellucci
#96ATP
1720ELO
1678Hard ELO
25 yrs · 175 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLLLWW
Fritz T.
vs
Bellucci M.

Taylor Fritz faces Mattia Bellucci in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Taylor Fritz holds the paper edge — ranked #10, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's quarter-final.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Fritz T.89%
Bellucci M.11%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Fritz T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
6 common opponents · Fritz T. 8–3 · Bellucci M. 2–5
Bellucci M. better · same surface, 3 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Fritz T.
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Bellucci M.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+161 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1678
7.4Overall Elo 1909
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1720
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
7.78 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
7.0Reached the quarters here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

37 vs 36 matches

Statistics

This season
Fritz T.Bellucci M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
80%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
72%
65%
Return points won·Even
33%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
15.9
5.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.7
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Fritz T.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Bellucci M.

Bellucci M.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Fritz T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Fritz T.Bellucci M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
77
39
Break points saved·Even
99
95
Break points won·Dominant
36
4
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
47
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
99
80

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Fritz T.Bellucci M.
Freshness·Even
78
75

Fritz T.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d) · Bellucci M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 80%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-12StuttgartQFgrassTaylor Fritz7-5 5-7 5-7

Draw