Reilly Opelka vs Mattia Bellucci — Paris Masters Qualifying Round 1

Paris Masters · ATP · Qualifying Round 1
Reilly Opelka
USA5
Reilly Opelka
#115ATP
1749ELO
1734Hard ELO
$325kYTD
$6.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 211 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 27 October 2025
hard
Mattia Bellucci
ITA
Mattia Bellucci
#67ATP
1720ELO
1678Hard ELO
$587kYTD
$2.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWLL
Opelka R.
6-3 6-4
Bellucci M.
Opelka R.
662
Bellucci M.
340

Reilly Opelka defeated Mattia Bellucci 6-3 6-4 in the Paris Masters qualifying round 1 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Mattia Bellucci came in ranked #67, but Reilly Opelka had arrived on a 4-match winning run.

Key context

  • Match story: Reilly Opelka closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Opelka R.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Bellucci M.

Bellucci M.serving94% hold

wins 74% of points on serve vs Opelka R.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Opelka R.Bellucci M.
86
Serve
0
0
Return
40

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Opelka R.Bellucci M.
1st serve in·Even
64%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
79%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
69%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
28%
36%
Break points saved·Clear edge
74%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
16.9
5.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.0
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (68 vs 86). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Opelka R.Bellucci M.
Clutch Rating·Even
63
60
Break points saved·Even
100
96
Break points won·Slight edge
1
10
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
81
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Opelka R.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Bellucci M.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+56 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1678
6.1Overall Elo 1749
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1720
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.3
Surface form
4.2
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
3.4
Minutes 14d
8.2
4.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Opelka R.Bellucci M.
Freshness·
—
100

Bellucci M.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
13°CDrizzle
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 82%
Q2
Etcheverry T.[4]
De Jong J.
6-26-3
Korda S.[2]
Royer V.[10]
6-25-76-4
Quinn E.[12]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-37-64
Vukic A.
Opelka R.[5]
W/O
Comesana F.[7]
Goffin D.
6-10-0
Fearnley J.
Hanfmann Y.
6-46-2
Dzumhur D.[6]
Kovacevic A.[8]
6-726-37-67
Q1
Opelka R.[5]
Bellucci M.
6-36-4
Korda S.[2]
Kopriva V.
6-27-5
Comesana F.[7]
Van Assche L.
7-56-1
Royer V.[10]
Herbert P.
7-56-3
Dzumhur D.[6]
Halys Q.
4-66-36-1
Etcheverry T.[4]
Martinez P.
6-26-4
Van De Zandschulp B.
Brooksby J.[1]
4-66-36-3
Vukic A.
Walton A.[14]
3-66-26-4
De Jong J.
Majchrzak K.[11]
4-67-657-64
Quinn E.[12]
Blanchet U.
6-26-3
Goffin D.
Medjedovic H.[9]
7-57-5
Hanfmann Y.
Mannarino A.[3]
6-36-2
Kovacevic A.[8]
Jacquet K.
3-67-57-63
Fearnley J.
Arnaldi M.[13]
7-56-2