Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik — Halle Round of 32
Bellucci M.
Mattia Bellucci faces Alexander Bublik in the Halle round of 32 on grass. Alexander Bublik holds the paper edge — ranked #11, defending the title, a roughly 210-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Bublik A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Mattia Bellucci comes in with 1 days of rest and 131 games in 14d, vs Alexander Bublik's 1 and 76.
- Serve & return: Alexander Bublik brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 62), Mattia Bellucci the stronger return game (Return Rating 33).
- Last match: Mattia Bellucci dropped the opening set before beating Alex Bolt 6–7 7–5 6–3.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBellucci M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 116 games (7d) · Bublik A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.