Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci — Halle Round of 16
Collignon R.
Raphael Collignon faces Mattia Bellucci in the Halle round of 16 on grass. Raphael Collignon is the paper favourite — ranked #51, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage — but Mattia Bellucci has won their only previous meeting.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Collignon R. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Raphael Collignon comes in with 2 days of rest and 36 games in 14d, vs Mattia Bellucci's 2 and 165.
- Serve & return: Raphael Collignon brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 30), Mattia Bellucci the stronger return game (Return Rating 32).
- Last match: Raphael Collignon dropped just 6 games past Alexei Popyrin.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadCollignon R.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d) · Bellucci M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 122 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | Q2 | grass | Mattia Bellucci | 6-4 6-4 |