Alexander Bublik vs Alex De Minaur — Paris Masters Quarter-final

Paris Masters · ATP · Quarter-final
Alexander Bublik
KAZ13
Alexander Bublik
#11ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 27 October 2025
hard
Alex De Minaur
AUS6
Alex De Minaur
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Bublik A.
6-7 6-4 7-5
De Minaur A.
Bublik A.
65672
De Minaur A.
77451

Alexander Bublik defeated Alex De Minaur 6-7 6-4 7-5 in the Paris Masters quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 4–1, defending last year's quarter-final. Alexander Bublik narrowed the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

Head to head

1–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR16hardAlex De Minaur6-4 6-1 6-1
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR64clayAlexander Bublik2-6 2-6 6-4 6-3 6-2
2024-03-04Indian Wells MastersR32hardAlex De Minaur7-5 6-0
2021-04-19BarcelonaR32clayAlex De Minaur7-6(3) 6-2
2021-01-05AntalyaFgrassAlex De Minaur2-0 RET
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Bublik A.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bublik A.De Minaur A.
65
Serve
48
25
Return
80

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Bublik A.De Minaur A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
57%
Service points won·Even
67%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
40%
Break points saved·Even
67%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.8
3.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Bublik A.De Minaur A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
95
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
67
97
Deciding sets·Even
99
97
Tiebreaks·Even
96
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bublik A.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
De Minaur A.
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.8Hard Elo 1837
Surface ELO
6.2+99 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1961
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.0
Surface form
7.2
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.9
Minutes 14d
6.4
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
5.6
Country comfort
5.3
Context
6.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Bublik A.De Minaur A.
Freshness·Slight edge
70
77

Bublik A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · De Minaur A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
13°CDrizzle
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 82%
Final
Sinner J.[2]
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
6-47-64
Semi-finals
Sinner J.[2]
Zverev A.[3]
6-06-1
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Bublik A.[13]
7-636-4
Quarter-finals
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Vacherot V.
6-26-2
Bublik A.[13]
De Minaur A.[6]
6-756-47-5
Sinner J.[2]
Shelton B.[5]
6-36-3
Zverev A.[3]
Medvedev D.[11]
2-66-37-65
R16
Shelton B.[5]
Rublev A.[12]
7-666-3
De Minaur A.[6]
Khachanov K.[10]
6-26-2
Zverev A.[3]
Davidovich Fokina A.[15]
6-26-4
Sinner J.[2]
Cerundolo F.
7-56-1
Medvedev D.[11]
Sonego L.
3-67-656-4
Vacherot V.
Norrie C.
7-646-4
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Altmaier D.
3-66-36-2
Bublik A.[13]
Fritz T.[4]
7-656-2
R32
Medvedev D.[11]
Dimitrov G.
W/O
Shelton B.[5]
Cobolli F.
7-646-3
Cerundolo F.
Kecmanovic M.
7-51-67-64
Sinner J.[2]
Bergs Z.
6-46-2
Rublev A.[12]
Tien L.
6-46-4
De Minaur A.[6]
Diallo G.
7-684-66-3
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Muller A.
5-77-657-64
Vacherot V.
Rinderknech A.
6-796-36-4
Altmaier D.
Ruud C.[8]
6-37-5
Davidovich Fokina A.[15]
Cazaux A.
7-656-4
Sonego L.
Musetti L.[7]
3-66-36-1
Norrie C.
Alcaraz C.[1]
4-66-36-4
Fritz T.[4]
Vukic A.
7-646-2
Bublik A.[13]
Moutet C.
6-37-5
Zverev A.[3]
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-756-17-5
Khachanov K.[10]
Fonseca J.
6-13-66-3
R64
Cazaux A.
Darderi L.
7-657-64
Rinderknech A.
Marozsan F.
7-657-64
Vacherot V.
Lehecka J.[14]
6-16-3
Muller A.
Nakashima B.
6-27-5
Bublik A.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-3
Bergs Z.
Michelsen A.
6-32-66-2
Ugo Carabelli C.
Etcheverry T.
7-56-3
Diallo G.
Griekspoor T.
6-36-4
Fonseca J.
Shapovalov D.
5-76-46-3
Dimitrov G.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
7-656-1
Medvedev D.[11]
Munar J.
6-16-3
Tien L.
Borges N.
6-27-67
Cerundolo F.
Dzumhur D.
6-36-3
Sonego L.
Korda S.
6-26-3
Cobolli F.
Machac T.
6-16-4
Altmaier D.
Giron M.
6-27-65
Vukic A.
Atmane T.
6-42-66-4
Norrie C.
Baez S.
6-36-4
Rublev A.[12]
Fearnley J.
6-16-4
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Comesana F.
6-726-36-3
Kecmanovic M.
Kovacevic A.
6-41-67-62
Moutet C.
Opelka R.
3-67-56-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[15]
Royer V.
4-66-16-4
Khachanov K.[10]
Quinn E.
6-16-1