Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger Aliassime — Halle Quarter-final
Tiafoe F.
Frances Tiafoe faces Felix Auger Aliassime in the Halle quarter-final on grass. Felix Auger Aliassime holds the paper edge — ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 3–0, defending last year's round of 16. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Auger Aliassime F. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Felix Auger Aliassime dropped the opening set before beating Learner Tien 6–7 7–5 7–6.
- Last match: Frances Tiafoe edged Sho Shimabukuro in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).
- Head-to-head: Felix Auger Aliassime leads the head-to-head 3–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Paris Masters 2022.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadTiafoe F.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d) · Auger Aliassime F.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 65 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–3| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | QF | hard | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2022-04-18 | Barcelona | R16 | clay | Felix Auger Aliassime | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2021-08-30 | US Open | R16 | hard | Felix Auger Aliassime | 4-6 6-2 7-6(6) 6-4 |