Felix Auger Aliassime vs Michael Zheng — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32
Felix Auger Aliassime
CAN
Felix Auger Aliassime
#4ATP
1958ELO
1789Grass ELO
$2.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWLWW
—
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
grass
USA
Michael Zheng
#144ATP
1646ELO
1490Grass ELO
$310kYTD
$502kCAREER
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLLLWW
Auger Aliassime F.
vs
Zheng M.

Felix Auger Aliassime faces Michael Zheng in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Felix Auger Aliassime is the paper favourite — ranked #4, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 300-point grass Elo advantage — but Michael Zheng rides a 5-match win streak. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:20 UTC
Auger Aliassime F.94%
Zheng M.6%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Auger Aliassime F. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Auger Aliassime F.
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Zheng M.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.7+299 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.3Grass Elo 1490
8.9Overall Elo 1958
ELO gap
1.1Overall Elo 1646
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.17 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.25 of last 8 on grass
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Auger Aliassime F.Stable
Zheng M.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

26 vs 12 matches

Statistics

This season
Auger Aliassime F.Zheng M.
1st serve in·Even
68%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
70%
61%
Return points won·Even
36%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.7
3.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
0.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Auger Aliassime F.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Zheng M.

Zheng M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Auger Aliassime F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Auger Aliassime F.Zheng M.
Freshness·Dominant
80
53

Auger Aliassime F.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Zheng M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 114 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 47%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-62-1
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-660-0
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Khachanov K.
Hanfmann Y.
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.
Mensik J.
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
Fils A.
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
Tiafoe F.
Choinski J.
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.
Lehecka J.
Molcan A.
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
Halys Q.
Giron M.
Royer V.
Zverev A.
Sinner J.
Brooksby J.
—
Mochizuki S.
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.
—
Medvedev D.
Auger Aliassime F.
Zheng M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Fucsovics M.
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.
Rinderknech A.
Djokovic N.
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