Rafael Jodar vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32
Rafael Jodar
ESP
Rafael Jodar
#26ATP
1999ELO
1699Grass ELO
$1.6MYTD
$1.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 191 cm
Last 10
WWLWWWWLWW
—
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
grass
Shintaro Mochizuki
JPN
Shintaro Mochizuki
#151ATP
1485ELO
1525Grass ELO
$243kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLWWLL
Jodar R.
vs
Mochizuki S.

Rafael Jodar faces Shintaro Mochizuki in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Rafael Jodar is the paper favourite — ranked #26, a roughly 170-point grass Elo advantage — but Shintaro Mochizuki rides a 5-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:20 UTC
Jodar R.95%
Mochizuki S.5%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Jodar R. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jodar R.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Mochizuki S.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.2+174 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Grass Elo 1525
10.0Overall Elo 1999
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1485
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
7.87 of last 10 on grass
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Jodar R.Cooling
Mochizuki S.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

39 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Jodar R.Mochizuki S.
1st serve in·Clear edge
64%
52%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
56%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.1
2.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.2
6.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Jodar R.serving91% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Mochizuki S.

Mochizuki S.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Jodar R.

Serve advantage — Jodar R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Jodar R.Mochizuki S.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
86
52
Break points saved·Clear edge
91
74
Break points won·Clear edge
71
55
Deciding sets·Dominant
100
46
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
95
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Jodar R.Mochizuki S.
Freshness·Dominant
86
56

Jodar R.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Mochizuki S.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 97 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 42%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-666-77
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[24]
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
6-36-26-2
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
2-66-26-756-46-3
Khachanov K.
Hanfmann Y.
6-3 1-0
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.
6.4-7.7 4-3
Mensik J.
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
Fils A.
6-4 7-5 0-0
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
7-664-66-26-3
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
5-77-636-36-3
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
6-26-27-5
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
6-746-46-747-662-6
Tiafoe F.
Choinski J.
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.
Lehecka J.
Molcan A.
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
4-6 4-5
Halys Q.
Giron M.
6-753-64-6
Royer V.
Zverev A.
1-6 3-6 2-4
Sinner J.[1]
Brooksby J.
Jodar R.
Mochizuki S.
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.[21]
Struff J.
Medvedev D.
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Zheng M.
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Fucsovics M.
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.[24]
Rinderknech A.[25]
Djokovic N.[7]
De Minaur A.
Svajda Z.
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Bergs Z.
Fery A.
Fritz T.
Sonego L.
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Giron M.
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