Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Wimbledon Round of 64
Jodar R.Rafael Jodar faces Pablo Carreno Busta in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Rafael Jodar holds the paper edge — ranked #26, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Jodar R. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Pablo Carreno Busta advanced when Denis Shapovalov retired.
- Head-to-head: Rafael Jodar leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Roland Garros 2026.
- Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Roland Garros | R16 | clay | Rafael Jodar | 4-6 4-6 6-1 6-2 6-2 |