Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Wimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
Denis Shapovalov
CAN
Denis Shapovalov
#41ATP
1772ELO
1627Grass ELO
$705kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLLLLWWLL
—
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP
Pablo Carreno Busta
#71ATP
1801ELO
1598Grass ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWWWW
Shapovalov D.
vs
Carreno Busta P.

Denis Shapovalov faces Pablo Carreno Busta in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Denis Shapovalov is the paper favourite — ranked #41, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 30-point grass Elo advantage — but Pablo Carreno Busta has won 6 of their 8 previous meetings, though none on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC
Shapovalov D.50%
Carreno Busta P.50%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Shapovalov D.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Carreno Busta P.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
5.4+29 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Grass Elo 1598
4.6Overall Elo 1772
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1800
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
3.74 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
3.34 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
5.5Won 58% in GBR (31)
Country comfort
Surface transition
3.0Clay → Grass
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Shapovalov D.Cooling
Carreno Busta P.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

17 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Shapovalov D.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Even
57%
53%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.1
2.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.2
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Shapovalov D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Shapovalov D.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
85
79
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Slight edge
71
61
Deciding sets·Slight edge
92
81
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
84
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Shapovalov D.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·
92
—

Shapovalov D.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

2–6
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-23DubaiR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-2 6-4
2022-10-31Paris MastersR32hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6(2) 2-6 6-4
2022-01-03Atp CupFhardDenis Shapovalov6-4 6-3
2020-08-31US OpenQFhardPablo Carreno Busta3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(4) 0-6 6-3
2019-10-21ViennaR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 7-5
2019-09-23ChengduSFhardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 6-4
2019-05-13Rome MastersR64clayDenis Shapovalov6-3 7-6(5)
2017-08-28US OpenR16hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6(2) 7-6(4) 7-6(3)

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Comesana F.[1]
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.[18]
5-73-6
Faria J.[2]
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.[21]
3-66-74
Wong C.[4]
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.[26]
2-66-73
Gaston H.[5]
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.[29]
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.[25]
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.[19]
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.[9]
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.[10]
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-64-6
Sweeny D.[11]
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.[12]
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell[32]
6-734-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.[22]
4-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.[16]
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.[23]
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
6-37-63
Kwon S.
Gea A.[18]
5-76-36-4
Faria J.[2]
Pavlovic L.
6-46-4
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
4-64-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Tabur C.
7-56-744-6
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.[21]
2-66-43-6
Gojo B.
Smith C.
4-64-6
Djere L.
Zheng M.[26]
5-73-6
Gaston H.[5]
Cina F.
7-56-4
Smith K.
Echargui M.[29]
4-66-36-76
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
4-61-6
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.[25]
6-794-6
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Martin Tiffon P.
6-46-2
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-1
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Dodig M.
6-27-64
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
4-64-6
Mejia N.
Heide G.
6-46-3
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-70-6
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
7-56-2
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-67-646-2
Sweeny D.[11]
Blanch D.
2-67-674-0
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-31-6
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
5-72-6
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
3-64-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-4
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell[32]
4-64-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Searle H.
7-657-65
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.[22]
2-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Coppejans K.
7-627-5
Kym J.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-46-3
Travaglia S.[16]
Zhou Y.
6-774-6
Piros Z.
Harris B.[23]
4-64-6
Moro Canas A.
Kwon S.
4-66-763-6
Faria J.[2]
Sakamoto R.[27]
7-634-66-36-4
Tabur C.
Mochizuki S.[21]
6-15-76-23-61-6
Smith C.
Zheng M.[26]
4-66-42-63-6
Gaston H.[5]
Echargui M.[29]
6-15-76-26-4
Skatov T.
Jacquet K.[25]
6-754-64-6
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Boyer T.
5-77-646-723-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Virtanen O.
6-44-64-65-7
Mejia N.
Schoolkate T.[28]
6-46-46-4
Basing M.
Bertola R.
2-66-43-67-56-2
Sweeny D.[11]
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-47-650-66-2
Tarvet O.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
6-46-27-5
Mcdonald M.[13]
C. O'Connell[32]
6-36-46-4
Gaubas V.[14]
Lajovic D.[22]
3-66-43-66-36-4
Safiullin R.[15]
Kym J.
4-67-623-67-666-4
Zhou Y.
Harris B.[23]
6-16-722-63-6