Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno BustaAtp Cup Final

Atp Cup · ATP · Final
#41ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 3 January 2022
hard
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Shapovalov D.
6-4 6-3
Carreno Busta P.
Shapovalov D.
662
Carreno Busta P.
430

Denis Shapovalov defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-4 6-3 in the Atp Cup final on hard. The result followed the form book — Denis Shapovalov came in ranked #41, defending last year's round-robin. Denis Shapovalov narrowed the head-to-head to 7–2.

Key context

Head to head

17
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-29WimbledonR128grassPablo Carreno Busta3-6 6.7-7.9 0-0
2026-02-23DubaiR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-2 6-4
2022-10-31Paris MastersR32hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6(2) 2-6 6-4
2020-08-31US OpenQFhardPablo Carreno Busta3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(4) 0-6 6-3
2019-10-21ViennaR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 7-5
2019-09-23ChengduSFhardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 6-4
2019-05-13Rome MastersR64clayDenis Shapovalov6-3 7-6(5)
2017-08-28US OpenR16hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6(2) 7-6(4) 7-6(3)

Serve vs return

This season
Shapovalov D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Shapovalov D.Carreno Busta P.
25
Serve
21
70
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Even
36%
39%
Break points saved·Even
63%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.2
3.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.1
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 183). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
85
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Slight edge
71
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
92
80
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
84
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 56 days (−0.7)
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 36 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
5.9+31 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1744
5.6Overall Elo 1771
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1801
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.4
Surface form
4.7
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
98
90

Shapovalov D.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast

Draw

Final
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
6-46-3
Auger Aliassime F.
Bautista Agut R.
7-636-3