Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Wimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
Denis Shapovalov
CAN
Denis Shapovalov
#67ATP
1771ELO
1636Grass ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLWWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Retired
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Court 6 · 1st on
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP
Pablo Carreno Busta
#65ATP
1801ELO
1598Grass ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLWWWWL
Shapovalov D.
3-6 6-7 0-0
Carreno Busta P.
Shapovalov D.
3600
Carreno Busta P.
6702

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Denis Shapovalov in the Round of 128 at Wimbledon. Shapovalov retired during the match, with Carreno Busta leading 6-3, 7-6, 0-0.

Around the match

  • Shapovalov suffered a shoulder injury after crashing into the corner fence and was forced to retire from his match.

    Shapovalov D.tennismajors.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Head to head

2–6
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-23DubaiR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-2 6-4
2022-10-31Paris MastersR32hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6 2-6 6-4
2022-01-03Atp CupFhardDenis Shapovalov6-4 6-3
2020-08-31US OpenQFhardPablo Carreno Busta3-6 7-6 7-6 0-6 6-3
2019-10-21ViennaR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 7-5
2019-09-23ChengduSFhardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 6-4
2019-05-13Rome MastersR64clayDenis Shapovalov6-3 7-6
2017-08-28US OpenR16hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6 7-6 7-6

Statistics

This season
Shapovalov D.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Even
57%
53%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.1
2.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.2
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Shapovalov D.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
66
47
Break points saved·Slight edge
97
92
Break points won·Slight edge
53
64
Deciding sets·Dominant
87
20
Tiebreaks·Dominant
48
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Shapovalov D.50%
Carreno Busta P.50%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Shapovalov D.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Carreno Busta P.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
5.5+38 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Grass Elo 1598
4.6Overall Elo 1772
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1800
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
3.64 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
3.44 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.5Won 58% in United Kingdom (24)
Country comfort
Surface transition
3.0Clay → Grass
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Shapovalov D.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·
—
78

Carreno Busta P.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
20°CMainly clear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw