Pablo Carreno Busta vs Denis Shapovalov — US Open Quarter-final

US Open · ATP · Quarter-final
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP
Pablo Carreno Busta
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
3 — 2
Sets
Monday, 31 August 2020
hard
Denis Shapovalov
CAN
Denis Shapovalov
#41ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Carreno Busta P.
3-6 7-6 7-6 0-6 6-3
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
37777063
Shapovalov D.
66564632

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Denis Shapovalov 3-6 7-6 7-6 0-6 6-3 in the US Open quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Denis Shapovalov came in ranked #41, defending last year's round of 32. Pablo Carreno Busta extended the head-to-head to 7–2.

Key context

Head to head

6–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-29WimbledonR128grassPablo Carreno Busta3-6 6.7-7.9 0-0
2026-02-23DubaiR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-2 6-4
2022-10-31Paris MastersR32hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6(2) 2-6 6-4
2022-01-03Atp CupFhardDenis Shapovalov6-4 6-3
2019-10-21ViennaR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 7-5
2019-09-23ChengduSFhardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 6-4
2019-05-13Rome MastersR64clayDenis Shapovalov6-3 7-6(5)
2017-08-28US OpenR16hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6(2) 7-6(4) 7-6(3)

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Shapovalov D.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Shapovalov D.
21
Serve
25
44
Return
70

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Carreno Busta P.Shapovalov D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Even
38%
36%
Break points saved·Even
61%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.6
8.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
6.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (197 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Carreno Busta P.Shapovalov D.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
78
85
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Slight edge
61
71
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
92
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
95
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Carreno Busta P.Shapovalov D.
Freshness·Slight edge
90
98

Carreno Busta P.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Shapovalov D.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw

Final
Thiem D.
Zverev A.
2-64-66-46-37-66
Semi-finals
Thiem D.
Medvedev D.
6-27-677-65
Zverev A.
Carreno Busta P.
3-62-66-36-46-3
Quarter-finals
Zverev A.
Coric B.
1-67-657-616-3
Thiem D.
De Minaur A.
6-16-26-4
Medvedev D.
Rublev A.
7-666-37-65
Carreno Busta P.
Shapovalov D.
3-67-657-640-66-3
R16
Carreno Busta P.
Djokovic N.
6-5
De Minaur A.
Pospisil V.
7-666-36-2
Thiem D.
Auger Aliassime F.
7-646-16-1
Shapovalov D.
Goffin D.
6-706-36-46-3
Coric B.
Thompson J.
7-56-16-3
Zverev A.
Davidovich Fokina A.
6-26-26-1
Rublev A.
Berrettini M.
4-66-36-36-3
Medvedev D.
Tiafoe F.
6-46-16-0
R32
Berrettini M.
Ruud C.
6-46-46-2
Djokovic N.
Struff J.
6-36-36-1
Pospisil V.
Bautista Agut R.
7-52-64-66-36-2
Rublev A.
Caruso S.
6-06-46-0
De Minaur A.
Khachanov K.
6-40-64-66-36-1
Auger Aliassime F.
Moutet C.
6-16-06-4
Thiem D.
Cilic M.
6-26-23-66-3
Tiafoe F.
Fucsovics M.
6-26-36-2
Carreno Busta P.
Berankis R.
6-46-36-2
Shapovalov D.
Fritz T.
3-66-34-67-656-2
Goffin D.
Krajinovic F.
6-17-656-4
Coric B.
Tsitsipas S.
6-726-44-67-57-64
Thompson J.
Kukushkin M.
7-56-46-1
Davidovich Fokina A.
Norrie C.
7-624-66-26-1
Zverev A.
Mannarino A.
6-746-46-26-2
Medvedev D.
Wolf J.
6-36-36-2
R64
Ruud C.
Ruusuvuori E.
6-46-33-2
Tiafoe F.
Millman J.
7-663-61-66-36-3
Struff J.
Mmoh M.
6-26-27-5
Cilic M.
Gombos N.
6-31-67-627-5
Moutet C.
Evans D.
4-66-37-657-61
Auger Aliassime F.
Murray A.
6-26-36-4
Khachanov K.
Kuznetsov A.
6-36-46-1
De Minaur A.
Gasquet R.
6-46-36-767-5
Pospisil V.
Raonic M.
6-716-37-646-3
Bautista Agut R.
Kecmanovic M.
6-33-66-36-4
Kukushkin M.
Garin C.
6-26-13-64-67-5
Medvedev D.
Oconnell C.
6-36-26-4
Thompson J.
Gerasimov E.
6-16-43-66-3
Coric B.
Londero J.
7-54-66-756-26-3
Tsitsipas S.
Cressy M.
7-626-36-4
Goffin D.
Harris L.
7-664-66-16-4
Krajinovic F.
Giron M.
6-46-16-3
Fritz T.
Simon G.
7-56-36-2
Shapovalov D.
Kwon S.
6-756-46-46-2
Berankis R.
Johnson S.
7-56-21-67-61
Norrie C.
Coria F.
6-36-46-4
Wolf J.
Carballes Baena R.
6-26-46-3
Carreno Busta P.
Krueger M.
6-16-26-2
Djokovic N.
Edmund K.
6-756-36-46-2
Thiem D.
Nagal S.
6-36-36-2
Fucsovics M.
Dimitrov G.
6-757-643-66-46-1
Rublev A.
Barrere G.
6-26-47-64
Caruso S.
Escobedo E.
3-66-46-36-4
Berrettini M.
Humbert U.
6-46-47-66
Zverev A.
Nakashima B.
7-56-786-36-1
Mannarino A.
Sock J.
7-657-56-2
Davidovich Fokina A.
Hurkacz H.
6-41-66-26-2
R128
Harris L.
Cecchinato M.
6-47-56-2
Coria F.
Jung J.
2-64-66-46-12-0
Thiem D.
Munar J.
7-666-3
Evans D.
Seyboth Wild T.
6-26-17-65
Cilic M.
Kudla D.
6-733-67-57-56-3
Barrere G.
Daniel T.
6-36-43-66-1
Caruso S.
Duckworth J.
4-67-57-56-2
Johnson S.
Isner J.
6-756-36-756-37-63
Krajinovic F.
Ymer M.
6-27-636-3
Mmoh M.
Sousa J.
6-27-52-66-1
Edmund K.
Bublik A.
2-67-57-56-0
Giron M.
Polmans M.
6-46-753-66-46-2
Fritz T.
Koepfer D.
6-776-36-26-4
Djokovic N.
Dzumhur D.
6-16-46-1
Nakashima B.
Lorenzi P.
6-36-27-63
Sock J.
Cuevas P.
3-66-46-24-67-62
Mannarino A.
Sonego L.
6-16-42-66-3
Hurkacz H.
Gojowczyk P.
6-36-46-4
Davidovich Fokina A.
Novak D.
3-66-46-31-66-0
Norrie C.
Schwartzman D.
3-64-66-26-17-5
Garin C.
Blanch U.
4-65-76-46-46-2
Kukushkin M.
Balazs A.
6-47-56-4
Thompson J.
Travaglia S.
6-36-44-66-2
Gerasimov E.
Lajovic D.
6-14-66-46-4
Coric B.
Andujar P.
7-56-36-1
Tsitsipas S.
Ramos A.
6-26-16-1
Goffin D.
Opelka R.
7-623-66-16-4
Rublev A.
Chardy J.
6-46-46-3
Dimitrov G.
Paul T.
6-46-36-1
Nagal S.
Klahn B.
6-16-33-66-1
Gombos N.
Albot R.
6-46-16-4
Fucsovics M.
Dellien H.
6-36-36-1
Tiafoe F.
Seppi A.
4-66-36-47-5
Millman J.
Basilashvili N.
6-16-46-4
Wolf J.
Pella G.
6-20-66-36-3
Carballes Baena R.
Lopez F.
3-67-656-46-3
Oconnell C.
Djere L.
4-66-47-626-4
Medvedev D.
Delbonis F.
6-16-26-4
Bautista Agut R.
Sandgren T.
6-46-47-63
Kecmanovic M.
Mager G.
6-46-46-763-66-2
Pospisil V.
Kohlschreiber P.
7-647-57-63
Raonic M.
Mayer L.
6-36-26-3
De Minaur A.
Martin A.
6-46-37-5
Gasquet R.
Karlovic I.
7-607-646-1
Kuznetsov A.
Querrey S.
6-47-666-2
Khachanov K.
Sinner J.
3-66-776-26-07-64
Auger Aliassime F.
Monteiro T.
6-36-777-667-66
Murray A.
Nishioka Y.
4-64-67-657-646-4
Moutet C.
Vesely J.
6-46-47-5
Escobedo E.
Majchrzak K.
7-636-26-3
Ruud C.
Mcdonald M.
4-64-66-46-36-2
Ruusuvuori E.
Bedene A.
6-33-66-14-66-1
Humbert U.
Sugita Y.
6-36-46-3
Berrettini M.
Soeda G.
7-656-16-4
Zverev A.
Anderson K.
7-625-76-37-5
Carreno Busta P.
Uchiyama Y.
4-66-31-66-36-3
Krueger M.
Sousa P.
3-66-27-56-3
Berankis R.
Gaio F.
7-634-66-46-4
Struff J.
Martinez P.
6-07-56-4
Shapovalov D.
Korda S.
6-44-66-36-2
Kwon S.
Kwiatkowski T.
3-67-646-16-2
Simon G.
Safwat M.
6-16-46-4
Cressy M.
Kovalik J.
6-12-66-46-4
Londero J.
Donskoy E.
6-36-37-5