Pablo Carreno Busta vs Denis ShapovalovDubai Round of 32

Dubai · ATP · Round of 32
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 23 February 2026
hard
#39ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Carreno Busta P.
6-2 6-4
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
662
Shapovalov D.
240

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Denis Shapovalov 6-2 6-4 in the Dubai round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Denis Shapovalov came in ranked #39. Pablo Carreno Busta extended the head-to-head to 7–2.

Key context

Head to head

62
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-29WimbledonR128grassPablo Carreno Busta3-6 6.7-7.9 0-0
2022-10-31Paris MastersR32hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6(2) 2-6 6-4
2022-01-03Atp CupFhardDenis Shapovalov6-4 6-3
2020-08-31US OpenQFhardPablo Carreno Busta3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(4) 0-6 6-3
2019-10-21ViennaR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 7-5
2019-09-23ChengduSFhardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 6-4
2019-05-13Rome MastersR64clayDenis Shapovalov6-3 7-6(5)
2017-08-28US OpenR16hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6(2) 7-6(4) 7-6(3)

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Shapovalov D.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Serve advantage — Carreno Busta P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Shapovalov D.
21
Serve
25
44
Return
70

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
51%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.7
7.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.4
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
78
85
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Slight edge
61
71
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
92
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
95
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1744
Surface ELO
5.9+31 Hard Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1771
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.8
Surface form
5.8
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
5.7
Minutes 14d
5.9
0.0
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
92
98

Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Shapovalov D.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 53%