Alexandre Muller vs Tommy Paul — Wimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
Alexandre Muller
FRA
Alexandre Muller
#136ATP
1665ELO
1516Grass ELO
$426kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLLLL
0 — 3
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Court 18 · 2nd on
Tommy Paul
USA21
Tommy Paul
#24ATP
1949ELO
1801Grass ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLWLL
Muller A.
1-6 2-6 1-6
Paul T.
Muller A.
1210
Paul T.
6663

Tommy Paul defeated Alexandre Muller in the Round of 128 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 6-1, 6-2, 6-1 in favor of Paul. Paul served 12 aces and converted 44% of break points, while Muller converted none and was broken seven times.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-10-23ViennaR32hardTommy Paul6-3 6-1

Statistics

This season
Muller A.Paul T.
1st serve in·Even
66%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
75%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
56%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
68%
Return points won·Even
35%
38%
Break points saved·Even
63%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.0
6.7
Double faults / match·Even
1.7
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Muller A.Paul T.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
72
90
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
97
Break points won·Dominant
46
88
Deciding sets·Even
95
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
84
90

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Muller A.6%
Paul T.94%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Paul T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Muller A.
3.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Paul T.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.4Grass Elo 1516
Surface ELO
8.6+284 Grass Elo edge
1.5Overall Elo 1664
ELO gap
8.6Overall Elo 1948
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
3.24 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 8
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
5.9Won 66% in United Kingdom (32)
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Muller A.Paul T.
Freshness·Dominant
89
51

Muller A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Paul T.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 93 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 42%

Draw