Alexandre Muller vs Tommy Paul — Wimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
Alexandre Muller
FRA
Alexandre Muller
#125ATP
1665ELO
1516Grass ELO
$426kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLLLLW
—
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Tommy Paul
USA
Tommy Paul
#24ATP
1935ELO
1765Grass ELO
$1.4MYTD
$14MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWWLW
Muller A.
vs
Paul T.

Alexandre Muller faces Tommy Paul in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Tommy Paul holds the paper edge — ranked #24, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 64.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC
Muller A.7%
Paul T.93%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Paul T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Head-to-head: Tommy Paul leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Vienna 2023.
  • Stage: Alexandre Muller defends last year's round of 128; Tommy Paul defends last year's round of 64.
  • Fatigue load: Tommy Paul carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Muller A.
3.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Paul T.
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.9Grass Elo 1516
Surface ELO
8.1+248 Grass Elo edge
1.6Overall Elo 1664
ELO gap
8.4Overall Elo 1935
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
2.73 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 8
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
6.3Won 71% in GBR (31)
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Muller A.Cooling
Paul T.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

21 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
Muller A.Paul T.
1st serve in·Even
67%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
56%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
69%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
61%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.1
6.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.7
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Muller A.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Muller A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Muller A.Paul T.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
75
93
Break points saved·Slight edge
94
99
Break points won·Dominant
44
87
Deciding sets·Even
95
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
84
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Muller A.Paul T.
Freshness·
—
73

Paul T.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-10-23ViennaR32hardTommy Paul6-3 6-1

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Comesana F.[1]
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.[18]
5-73-6
Faria J.[2]
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.[21]
3-66-74
Wong C.[4]
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.[26]
2-66-73
Gaston H.[5]
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.[29]
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.[25]
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.[19]
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.[9]
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.[10]
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-64-6
Sweeny D.[11]
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.[12]
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell[32]
6-734-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.[22]
4-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.[16]
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.[23]
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
6-37-63
Kwon S.
Gea A.[18]
5-76-36-4
Faria J.[2]
Pavlovic L.
6-46-4
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
4-64-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Tabur C.
7-56-744-6
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.[21]
2-66-43-6
Gojo B.
Smith C.
4-64-6
Djere L.
Zheng M.[26]
5-73-6
Gaston H.[5]
Cina F.
7-56-4
Smith K.
Echargui M.[29]
4-66-36-76
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
4-61-6
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.[25]
6-794-6
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Martin Tiffon P.
6-46-2
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-1
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Dodig M.
6-27-64
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
4-64-6
Mejia N.
Heide G.
6-46-3
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-70-6
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
7-56-2
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-67-646-2
Sweeny D.[11]
Blanch D.
2-67-674-0
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-31-6
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
5-72-6
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
3-64-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-4
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell[32]
4-64-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Searle H.
7-657-65
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.[22]
2-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Coppejans K.
7-627-5
Kym J.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-46-3
Travaglia S.[16]
Zhou Y.
6-774-6
Piros Z.
Harris B.[23]
4-64-6
Moro Canas A.
Kwon S.
4-66-763-6
Faria J.[2]
Sakamoto R.[27]
7-634-66-36-4
Tabur C.
Mochizuki S.[21]
6-15-76-23-61-6
Smith C.
Zheng M.[26]
4-66-42-63-6
Gaston H.[5]
Echargui M.[29]
6-15-76-26-4
Skatov T.
Jacquet K.[25]
6-754-64-6
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Boyer T.
5-77-646-723-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Virtanen O.
6-44-64-65-7
Mejia N.
Schoolkate T.[28]
6-46-46-4
Basing M.
Bertola R.
2-66-43-67-56-2
Sweeny D.[11]
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-47-650-66-2
Tarvet O.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
6-46-27-5
Mcdonald M.[13]
C. O'Connell[32]
6-36-46-4
Gaubas V.[14]
Lajovic D.[22]
3-66-43-66-36-4
Safiullin R.[15]
Kym J.
4-67-623-67-666-4
Zhou Y.
Harris B.[23]
6-16-722-63-6